By Mark Fergusson, Head of Client Engagement, Tritax Big Box
In the Year of the Fire Horse, Chinese operators are entering a new phase of UK expansion. Earlier this summer, I joined Cushman & Wakefield’s Europe Unlocked conferences across China to meet retailers, alongside 3PLs and adjacent businesses planning European operations in the next 6 months to the end of the decade. One message emerged consistently: Chinese investment in the UK logistics market is evolving.
The first wave of international growth was characterised by cross-border e-commerce and aggressive pricing. As businesses seek deeper UK market penetration, the second growth wave is increasingly focused on local fulfilment, logistics infrastructure and long-term market presence.
That shift matters not simply because more international businesses will be entering the UK, but because it reflects broader changes in how retailers will compete over the coming decade.
Recent Barclays and Retail Economics research illustrates the scale of this changing landscape.
Almost half of UK consumers have purchased from low-cost international platforms, with shoppers now spending around £4.7 billion annually through these channels. 1 This increasing consumer buying is taking place within one of the world’s most valuable e-commerce markets, believed to be worth around £152 billion in 2025, and expected to grow to £206 billion in 2030.
In tandem, increasing competition and margin pressure within China are encouraging more retailers to look beyond exports alone, pursuing local operations to support long-term growth.
For UK retailers, the significance is twofold: China’s international retail expansion provides consumers with a great choice, often at a lower price point, while also increasing demand for the local logistics infrastructure needed to serve these customers quickly and reliably.
The next battleground isn’t price, it’s capability
Across retail, price remains a significant competitive lever, but it is no longer the only differentiator.
Delivery speed, reliable fulfilment and convenient returns are becoming increasingly critical factors in purchasing decisions. The retailers able to consistently deliver against these expectations will be best positioned to build lasting customer relationships. This requires resilient fulfilment networks, strategically located logistics space and the operational capability to consistently deliver at scale.
In connection, the mechanics of the purchasing experience are evolving as social commerce moves from experimentation to becoming a mainstream retail channel. The Retail Resilience report states that almost one-third of UK Gen Z consumers have already purchased through platforms such as TikTok Shop. Yet many UK retailers acknowledge they are still developing the operational capabilities needed to support creator-led selling, integrated fulfilment and rapidly changing demand
patterns.
Unlike traditional ecommerce, social commerce compresses discovery, consideration and purchase into a single interaction. Growth is therefore being driven less by larger basket sizes than by increased purchase frequency, impulse buying and livestream-led ordering spikes.
These factors place greater emphasis on agile fulfilment networks capable of supporting shorter purchasing cycles and higher order volumes, areas where many Chinese retailers have developed considerable expertise. These operators are coming to the UK from one of the world’s most mature social commerce markets, forecast to reach US$769 billion by the end of 2030, with livestream shopping and in-app purchasing deeply embedded within consumer behaviour.
Yet the growing influence of Chinese retail models should not obscure the advantages many UK retailers already possess.
While much of the discussion around Chinese expansion focuses on digital commerce, physical retail remains a major competitive advantage for established UK operators. In fact, CBRE’s UK Retail Generational Survey 2026, which examines how different generations shop and engage with retail destinations, found that every surveyed cohort preferred in-store shopping. Store networks have certain advantages that are much harder to replicate for online retailers, including click-and collect, local returns, same-day fulfilment and personalised customer engagement.
Looking beyond the Year of the Fire Horse
Policy developments, including the planned removal of the de minimus customs exemption, now scheduled for October 2028, 6 months earlier than initially slated, are expected to further alter the economics of cross-border shipping.
While this change is intended to support domestic competitiveness, helping to level the playing field for UK retailers in price-sensitive categories, it is unlikely to reverse their international expansion ambitions. If anything, the de minimis removal strengthens the commercial rationale for local warehousing, fulfilment and distribution networks.
As more international businesses establish local operations, demand for well-located logistics space is expected to broaden further.
Our discussions in China also indicated that future demand will extend beyond retailers. Interest is emerging from a growing pipeline of 3PLs and businesses in adjacent sectors, which are actively evaluating and planning UK operations as part of longer-term international growth strategies.
Together, these developments suggest Chinese investment in UK commercial real estate is becoming longer-term, broader and more embedded.
For UK retailers, the key question is no longer simply where competition will come from, but how the basis of competition is changing. As international operators increasingly prioritise UK fulfilment, infrastructure and customer experience, the retailers best placed to succeed will be those that continue investing in resilient supply chains, operational agility and the capabilities needed to meet rising customer expectations.
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