Modest Growth Seen for Spring 2024 with Shifting Consumer Trends [J.C. Williams Group Analysis]

By J.C. Williams Group

Canadian retail sales grew modestly in April, especially compared to March’s drop, with All Stores growing 2.7% YOY. However, discretionary spend not up nearly as much with All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies only 0.5% YOY. It is important to remember that there was an extra 1-2 shopping days in April as Good Friday and Easter Sunday landed in March.

As with the rest of the world, the price of groceries remain top of mind. Despite the ongoing boycotts targeting Loblaws, Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores experienced decline of -1.5% YOY. This drop occurred even before the boycott commenced, indicating a significant shift in consumer behavior towards smaller, local grocers. This trend is largely attributed to consumers’ response to the high grocery inflation in Canada. While inflationary pressures pose challenges, the move towards local grocers is a silver lining, fostering community growth and providing much-needed support to local businesses.

The Canadian retail landscape also reflected the dynamic housing market and its associated rent and mortgage rates. Although the anticipated rate decrease had not yet taken effect, its expected impact on mortgage rates was already influencing consumer behavior. Condo sales in major cities like Toronto plummeted, hitting the lowest quarterly sales of new condos since the 2009 financial crisis. Consequently, potential homeowners found themselves with slightly more disposable income as they navigated the real estate market. For those staying put, the impending rate decrease fostered optimism about affording their mortgage renewals. This shift in financial confidence positively impacted several retail categories:

• Home Furnishings Stores saw a 2.1% YOY growth,
• Building Material and Garden Equipment sales rose by 4.9% YOY, and
• Electronics and Appliance Stores experienced a 5.7% YOY increase, likely driven by higher appliance sales.

Finally, a surprising development in April was the retail sales performance in Alberta. Despite a significant population growth of over 202,000 by the end of March—55,000 of whom were from other provinces—retail sales have only grown by a modest 0.3% YTD compared to 2023. Given this unprecedented annual population increase, retail sales were expected to rise at a higher rate. Potential explanations could be:

• Newcomers are shopping locally, though this alone shouldn’t have a significant impact.
• The costs associated with moving have constrained their immediate spending capacity.
• Alberta’s appeal lies in its lower cost of living, suggesting that many of the new residents might already be more frugal shoppers.

As we write this, Ontario is experiencing a heat wave, prompting us to consider how summer might alter shopping patterns. Key questions on our minds include:

• Will heat waves significantly affect traffic at shopping centres compared to Business Improvement Areas (BIAs)?
• With the recent cut to interest rates, can we expect a resurgence in discretionary spending?
• How will AI influence e-commerce shopping patterns, especially with on-device implementations coming to iPhones in the fall?
• How have you prepared your retail business to navigate the uncertainties of summer?

Canadian Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison

Canadian Ecommerce Sales

Canadian Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison

Retail Trade, Canada, All Stores, by Geographic Regions