By J.C. Williams Group
Canadian retail sales dropped in June 2024 with All Stores experiencing a decline of -3.0% YOY, and discretionary categories (All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies) down -1.4% YOY. This downturn reflects the ongoing challenges in the retail sector, as consumers continue to grapple with economic uncertainties and changing spending habits.
June witnessed a notable decline in retail sales across Canada, particularly in British Columbia and Alberta. This downturn could be attributed to the wildfires that ravaged these regions, disrupting normal business activities and consumer behavior. Furthermore, the country experienced its weakest two consecutive retail sales quarters since the onset of the pandemic, signaling potential economic headwinds or shifts in consumer spending patterns.
E-commerce sales also faced a downturn in June. Several factors contributed to this decline:
- Prime Day Anticipation: Many consumers held off on making large purchases, waiting for potential deals during Amazon’s Prime Day in July.
- Expectations of a July Rate Drop: With the anticipation of a possible interest rate drop in July, consumers likely delayed significant spending, hoping for better financial conditions.
In the realm of General Merchandise Stores (up 3.2% YOY), notable players like Walmart and Costco have become significant grocery retailers in Canada. Walmart’s inclusion in this category highlights its dual role as both a general merchandise and a major grocery provider. Similarly, Costco’s reporting in this category underscores its substantial influence in the grocery sector. These giants continue to shape the landscape of general merchandise and grocery retailing in the country.
The Beer, Wine, and Liquor Stores category presented some intriguing trends:
- Unexpected Decline: Despite rumors of an impending LCBO (Liquor Control Board of Ontario) strike, sales in this category were down. This was surprising given the potential stockpiling behavior that such rumors might typically incite.
- Shift Towards Sober Options: The ongoing trend of consumers opting for sober alternatives continued, contributing to the overall decline in alcohol sales. However, there was a slight month-over-month increase compared to May, indicating some seasonal or situational fluctuations.
- In addition to alcohol, Cannabis sales also experienced a downturn, with a -6.7% YOY decrease. This decline suggests that the market may have reached its saturation point. Additionally, there was a slight decrease in the number of cannabis stores in Canada, with 26 fewer stores in June 2024 compared to March 2024. This reduction in retail outlets could be a response to the market’s stabilization or a strategic consolidation by businesses in the sector.
As we move closer to the end of the 2024, and with so many imminent changes in the Canadian (especially Ontario) marketplace, JCWG is thinking about:
- Will the LCBO, Beer Store, The Wine Shop, and similar retailers experience a significant decline in sales as alcohol becomes more widely available in convenience stores and additional grocery outlets?
- In light of reduced consumer spending, is Loblaw’s new “No Name” concept poised to achieve immediate success?
- How significantly will economic pressures influence parents’ spending on back-to-school shopping this year?
- When can we expect the onset of holiday promotions this year, particularly for Halloween and Black Friday?
- How are YOU preparing your holiday strategy?
Canadian Retail Sales by Product Category, Same Month Comparison
| Sales for the Month of June | Jun-24 | Jun-23 | YOY |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 68,724,622 | 70,863,412 | -3.02% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 18,571,819 | 20,358,699 | -8.78% |
| Gasoline Stations | 6,713,505 | 6,647,884 | 0.99% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 43,439,298 | 43,856,829 | -0.95% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 13,334,168 | 13,466,980 | -0.99% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 9,307,456 | 9,282,809 | 0.27% |
| Convenience Stores | 764,762 | 811,853 | -5.80% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 949,700 | 941,058 | 0.92% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 2,312,250 | 2,431,260 | -4.89% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 5,420,071 | 5,358,022 | 1.16% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 24,685,059 | 25,031,827 | -1.39% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 9,308,004 | 9,024,155 | 3.15% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 3,385,018 | 3,521,032 | -3.86% |
| Furniture Stores | 1,169,137 | 1,230,006 | -4.95% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 664,032 | 692,400 | -4.10% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 1,551,849 | 1,598,625 | -2.93% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 3,494,275 | 3,511,642 | -0.49% |
| Clothing Stores | 2,726,480 | 2,701,308 | 0.93% |
| Shoe Stores | 407,516 | 429,341 | -5.08% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 360,279 | 380,994 | -5.44% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 3,822,062 | 4,052,630 | -5.69% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 4,675,700 | 4,922,367 | -5.01% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 2,499,141 | 2,700,678 | -7.46% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 405,712 | 434,548 | -6.64% |
Canadian Ecommerce Sales
| Ecommerce Sales | Jun-24 | Jun-23 | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year-to-Date | 21,955,382 | 20,975,396 | 4.67% |
| Year-Over-Year | 3,797,244 | 3,833,102 | -0.94% |
Canadian Retail Sales by Store Category, Year to Date Comparison
| Year-to-Date, Ending June | Jun-24 | Jun-23 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Stores | 384,665,484 | 381,549,991 | 0.82% |
| Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers | 106,567,480 | 106,453,638 | 0.11% |
| Gasoline Stations | 38,017,724 | 38,207,804 | -0.50% |
| All Stores Less Automotive | 240,080,280 | 236,888,549 | 1.35% |
| Food and Beverage Stores | 74,625,370 | 73,748,625 | 1.19% |
| Supermarkets and Other Grocery Stores* | 53,596,197 | 52,417,414 | 2.25% |
| Convenience Stores | 4,201,305 | 4,316,859 | -2.68% |
| Specialty Food Stores | 5,030,972 | 4,803,653 | 4.73% |
| Beer, Wine and Liquor Stores | 11,796,897 | 12,210,697 | -3.39% |
| Health and Personal Care Stores | 32,685,863 | 31,018,514 | 5.38% |
| All Stores Less Automotive, Food, and Pharmacies | 132,769,047 | 132,121,410 | 0.49% |
| General Merchandise Stores | 51,084,551 | 48,665,900 | 4.97% |
| Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronic and Appliance Stores | 20,045,440 | 20,201,490 | -0.77% |
| Furniture Stores | 6,612,924 | 6,727,719 | -1.71% |
| Home Furnishings Stores | 3,930,909 | 4,157,421 | -5.45% |
| Electronics and Appliance Stores | 9,501,608 | 9,316,347 | 1.99% |
| Clothing and Accessories Stores | 18,269,514 | 18,530,437 | -1.41% |
| Clothing Stores | 14,119,726 | 14,278,110 | -1.11% |
| Shoe Stores | 2,139,606 | 2,194,489 | -2.50% |
| Jewellery, Luggage and Leather Goods Stores | 2,010,181 | 2,057,837 | -2.32% |
| Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores | 20,850,819 | 21,879,892 | -4.70% |
| Building Material and Garden Equipment | 22,518,721 | 22,843,690 | -1.42% |
| Miscellaneous Store Retailers | 13,554,541 | 14,382,795 | -5.76% |
| Cannabis Retailers | 2,446,302 | 2,458,582 | -0.50% |
Retail Trade, Canada, All Stores, by Geographic Regions
| Region | Year-to-Date 2024 | Year-to-Date 2023 | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| British Columbia | 51,786,993 | 51,895,612 | -0.21% |
| Vancouver | 25,991,324 | 25,598,683 | 1.53% |
| Alberta | 49,686,159 | 50,054,395 | -0.74% |
| Prairies* | 25,546,077 | 25,164,055 | 1.52% |
| Ontario | 143,848,851 | 142,460,937 | 0.97% |
| Toronto | 65,012,986 | 65,179,144 | -0.25% |
| Québec | 86,175,882 | 85,244,647 | 1.09% |
| Montréal | 42,906,820 | 42,646,766 | 0.61% |
| Atlantic Canada | 26,235,967 | 25,419,275 | 3.21% |
| Territories | 1,385,558 | 1,311,069 | 5.68% |
