{"id":8434,"date":"2023-01-26T01:53:10","date_gmt":"2023-01-26T01:53:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/jason-scot-show-episode-301-annual-predictions-2023-year-end-recap-nrf-big-show\/"},"modified":"2023-01-26T01:53:10","modified_gmt":"2023-01-26T01:53:10","slug":"jason-scot-show-episode-301-annual-predictions-2023-year-end-recap-nrf-big-show","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/jason-scot-show-episode-301-annual-predictions-2023-year-end-recap-nrf-big-show\/","title":{"rendered":"Jason &#038; Scot Show Episode 301 Annual Predictions 2023, Year-End Recap, NRF Big Show"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <p><a href=\"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/online-workshops-list\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-496\" src=\"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/RETAIL-ONLINE-TRAINING-728-X-90.png\" alt=\"Retail Online Training\" width=\"729\" height=\"91\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/RETAIL-ONLINE-TRAINING-728-X-90.png 729w, https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/RETAIL-ONLINE-TRAINING-728-X-90-300x37.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 729px) 100vw, 729px\" \/><\/a><\/p><br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>A weekly podcast with the latest e-commerce news and events. Episode 301 is our annual predictions episode for 2023 and a recap of our 2022 predictions. We also recap the full retail year for 2022 and the NRF  Big Show.<\/p>\n<p> <span id=\"more-28693\"\/><\/p>\n<p><meta charset=\"utf-8\"\/><strong>Subscribe<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<figure><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border: none;\" src=\"http:\/\/html5-player.libsyn.com\/embed\/episode\/id\/25679775\/height\/360\/width\/640\/theme\/standard-mini\/autoplay\/no\/autonext\/no\/thumbnail\/yes\/preload\/no\/no_addthis\/no\/direction\/backward\/no-cache\/true\/\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">?<\/span><span style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">?<\/span><span style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">?<\/span><span style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">?<\/span><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">?<\/span><\/iframe><\/figure>\n<p>This ended up being a slightly longer than usual episode, sorry! If we had more time, we\u2019d make a shorter podcast (to paraphrase Mark Twain). So here are some timecodes if you want to jump ahead:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Recap of the NRF Big Show 1:27<\/li>\n<li>Recap of 2022 Holiday and Full Year Results 22:43<\/li>\n<li>2022 Predictions Scoring 30:34<\/li>\n<li>2023 Predictions 54:51<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2><strong>2022 Predictions Recap<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Jason<\/strong>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">NFTs, Web 3, Metaverse, and Ultrafast delivery services are all overhyped and don\u2019t deliver meaningful commerce revenue in 2022.<\/span> <strong>Yes<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Shein exceeds $30B in annual sales, disrupting apparel industry<\/span> <strong>Yes<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adoption of BNPL services slows down to less than 15% CAGR in 2022.<\/span> <strong>Yes<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Amazon opens more than 100 Amazon Fresh grocery stores<\/span><strong> No<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Last Mile evolves Veho, X-Delivery, shipium, or Instacart gets aquired<\/span> <strong>No<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Jason Total Score: 3 of 5<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Scot<\/strong>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Amazon launches a competitor to Shopify webstore, possibly via a headless solution on AWS<\/span> <strong>No<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Amazon wins ultra-fast delivery. Gopuff, Gorilla, or\u00a0 Jokr goes out of business in 2022<\/span> <strong>Yes<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Metaverse gets lots of buzz but no revenue<\/span> <strong>Yes<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Livestream commerce goes mainstream in the US\u00a0<\/span><strong>No<\/strong><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Fabric gets acquired<\/span> <strong>No<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Scot Total Score: 2 of 5<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>Jason pulls out the rare win!<\/p>\n<h2><b>2023 Predictions<\/b><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Jason<\/strong>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>At least 2 retail bankruptcies (besides Party City)<\/li>\n<li>BNPL Consolidation (Klarna, Affirm, Afterpay. Sezzle) \u2013 at least one merges\/exits US or BNPL.<\/li>\n<li>Shopify launches an ad product such as a retail media network<\/li>\n<li>Meta\/Google\/TikTok lose ad share to new social media platforms and retail media networks.<\/li>\n<li>Live Streaming Commerce Still not meaningful in US in 2023 (less than 5% of social commerce in US)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Scot<\/strong>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li>Amazon uses this 2022 setback\/slowdown\/reversion to the mean for a public resetting of expectations, but behind the scenes they <strong>take share<\/strong> and raise the bar on shipping<\/li>\n<li>Shopify is acquired<\/li>\n<li>An innovation in e-commerce powered by ai (gpt4) surprises us by how fast it\u2019s adopted and how cool it is<\/li>\n<li>E-commerce accelerates back to the mean in 2H after a mean regression in 1H. E-com returns 10-15% growth rates.<\/li>\n<li>Sephora and\/or Ulta move to a subscription model for new product discovery<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong>ChatGPT<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>\u201cbased on trends and current developments in e-commerce, it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry, with an emphasis on mobile commerce, personalize shopping experiences, and increased use of technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality. Additionally, there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce\u201d<\/p>\n<p><strong>Don\u2019t forget to like our\u00a0facebook page, and if you enjoyed this episode please write us a review on itunes.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Episode 301 of the Jason &amp; Scot show was recorded on <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Thursday, January 19th, 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"chapter\">Transcript<\/h2>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[0:23]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"0:23 - 0:38\" data-start=\"00:00:23.135\" data-end=\"00:00:38.014\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 301 being recorded on Thursday January 19th I\u2019m your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I\u2019m here with your co-host Scott Wingo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[0:38]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"0:38 - 0:49\" data-start=\"00:00:37.996\" data-end=\"00:00:49.269\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scott showed listeners Jason I was looking in our in my podcast app I\u2019m an iPhone user says looking in the Apple podcast app,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"0:49 - 1:00\" data-start=\"00:00:49.413\" data-end=\"00:00:59.538\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">we had a review in six months so I thought of the top of the show here we would ask folks if you enjoy the show we sure would appreciate a review if you are in that<\/span><br \/><span title=\"0:59 - 1:04\" data-start=\"00:00:59.448\" data-end=\"00:01:03.630\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">player you go into the app you find our podcast<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:04 - 1:17\" data-start=\"00:01:03.540\" data-end=\"00:01:17.054\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">scroll down a fair amount because we have so many episodes about four Scrolls I would estimate and then right there you\u2019ll see the Low Five Stars we would love a five star review or any review that you\u2019d like to leave that would be most appreciated,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:17 - 1:21\" data-start=\"00:01:17.181\" data-end=\"00:01:20.744\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">we do this for the reviews so we appreciate it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:21]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:21 - 1:27\" data-start=\"00:01:21.141\" data-end=\"00:01:26.753\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah I would just add that makes a great New Year\u2019s resolution because you can literally accomplish it 5 minutes after you met.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:27]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:27 - 1:33\" data-start=\"00:01:27.222\" data-end=\"00:01:32.594\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah and you get a dopamine hit and feel feel better about yourself sand Jason and I will be very happy,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:33 - 1:43\" data-start=\"00:01:32.841\" data-end=\"00:01:42.581\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Jason today we are going to talk about two of my favorite topics so number one you just got back from the NRF Big Show<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:42 - 1:59\" data-start=\"00:01:42.401\" data-end=\"00:01:58.763\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">and then we are belated with our predictions and recap for last year\u2019s predictions so we\u2019re going to sneak that in here we\u2019re still in January so I still think we\u2019re kind of in the new year a little little close here recording on the 19th but I think we\u2019re still in that window,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:59 - 2:06\" data-start=\"00:01:58.860\" data-end=\"00:02:05.986\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">so how I was not able to make it at in our F this year but you did and I look forward to hearing what you saw there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[2:07]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"2:07 - 2:14\" data-start=\"00:02:06.966\" data-end=\"00:02:13.828\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah yeah it was a good time obviously the biggest efficiency was your absence.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"2:15 - 2:28\" data-start=\"00:02:15.000\" data-end=\"00:02:27.937\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">But for any newer listeners that haven\u2019t been there before National Retail federation\u2019s in Trade Organization represents the retail industry and and this is their big event every year this is a hundred year old show,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"2:28 - 2:36\" data-start=\"00:02:28.004\" data-end=\"00:02:36.386\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">that is always at the Jacobs Javits Center in Manhattan in mid-January usually in the middle of a blizzard.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"2:37 - 2:46\" data-start=\"00:02:36.687\" data-end=\"00:02:45.802\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Um so so a bunch of things worked in our favor this year during the last couple covid years the Javits Center got remodeled and so.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"2:46 - 2:56\" data-start=\"00:02:46.205\" data-end=\"00:02:55.747\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The main areas where they do Keynotes and a lot of the big presentations and content are now like a new very nice facility that\u2019s very comfortable.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"2:56 - 3:04\" data-start=\"00:02:56.120\" data-end=\"00:03:04.010\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">And it was unseasonable e nice weather so it was kind of like 30s and 40s and clear no no snow no no blizzard to have to fly home in.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[3:05]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"3:05 - 3:07\" data-start=\"00:03:05.116\" data-end=\"00:03:06.792\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">That\u2019s good.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[3:07]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"3:07 - 3:14\" data-start=\"00:03:06.967\" data-end=\"00:03:13.642\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So that got things kicked off on the right foot and then to me the most exciting thing was just the vibrancy,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"3:14 - 3:24\" data-start=\"00:03:13.847\" data-end=\"00:03:23.996\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I don\u2019t think they\u2019ve published the final attendance number but I\u2019m pretty confident it\u2019s going to be just a smidge north of their 2020 attendance so,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"3:24 - 3:39\" data-start=\"00:03:24.237\" data-end=\"00:03:39.061\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">that you know given all the things that went on in the last couple of years being positive against your last pre coded year seems pretty good definitely felt like there was a lot of energy people were really happy to be there,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"3:39 - 3:41\" data-start=\"00:03:39.163\" data-end=\"00:03:41.308\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and I was particularly pleased because.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"3:42 - 3:54\" data-start=\"00:03:41.627\" data-end=\"00:03:53.585\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Last year was not a great year they tried to have the show last year there was just a big pain demick spike in New York right before the show so a lot of exhibitors.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"3:54 - 4:02\" data-start=\"00:03:53.940\" data-end=\"00:04:01.739\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Publicly pulled out other exhibitors quietly pulled out and just didn\u2019t show and so you know it was kind of this weird thing where they had.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"4:02 - 4:12\" data-start=\"00:04:02.166\" data-end=\"00:04:11.960\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Um you know a somewhat empty Spartan giant trade Joe for where they you know they frankly made a bunch of exhibitors still come in spite of the fact that there weren\u2019t very many,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"4:12 - 4:14\" data-start=\"00:04:12.069\" data-end=\"00:04:13.889\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">attendees for them to talk to,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"4:14 - 4:28\" data-start=\"00:04:14.082\" data-end=\"00:04:28.485\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">several of the Keynotes didn\u2019t show up and came via Zoom so it was it was not a good event last year and I was a little worried that that you know people that were forced to participate last year would be resentful and less interested in coming back.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"4:29 - 4:33\" data-start=\"00:04:29.165\" data-end=\"00:04:33.365\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">But it appears like we\u2019re back to normal.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[4:33]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"4:33 - 4:36\" data-start=\"00:04:33.065\" data-end=\"00:04:35.720\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">This retail thing is catching on.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[4:35]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"4:35 - 4:38\" data-start=\"00:04:35.420\" data-end=\"00:04:38.238\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah yeah it\u2019s not going away.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"4:39 - 4:48\" data-start=\"00:04:38.767\" data-end=\"00:04:48.039\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So a couple of the big trends and we won\u2019t go into depth in any of these but you know maybe some of these will come up as topics in subsequent podcast.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[4:49]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"4:49 - 5:02\" data-start=\"00:04:49.079\" data-end=\"00:05:01.908\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">They\u2019re the last couple shows there\u2019s there there have always been what I\u2019ll call digital shelves like electronic fact tags everybody knows I always like to talk about video displays on shelf Edge smart shelf so that know,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"5:02 - 5:06\" data-start=\"00:05:02.095\" data-end=\"00:05:05.808\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um what inventory they have on them and.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"5:06 - 5:14\" data-start=\"00:05:06.151\" data-end=\"00:05:14.028\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">They get incrementally better every year so there were a lot more of them this year they were all better and cheaper.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"5:14 - 5:19\" data-start=\"00:05:14.407\" data-end=\"00:05:18.655\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">For a variety of reasons I still don\u2019t think 20:23 is going to be the year that they become.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"5:19 - 5:32\" data-start=\"00:05:19.022\" data-end=\"00:05:31.755\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Super common in the wild but the tech is getting better a related Tech that seems like it has a lot of new vendors in this space is what I call in-store analytics so that\u2019s using cameras and computer vision too,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"5:32 - 5:41\" data-start=\"00:05:32.002\" data-end=\"00:05:41.490\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">measure Shoppers in the store and kind of like Google analytics for your your store again I\u2019m not expecting huge deployments this year but it\u2019s,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"5:42 - 5:51\" data-start=\"00:05:41.688\" data-end=\"00:05:51.314\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the computer vision technology is just getting more and more amazing and so that the insights that these things can get from relatively few cheap cameras keeps getting better.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"5:52 - 5:58\" data-start=\"00:05:51.603\" data-end=\"00:05:57.654\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Um there\u2019s a lot of automation at this show so you know there\u2019s the usual.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"5:58 - 6:07\" data-start=\"00:05:58.033\" data-end=\"00:06:07.299\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Auto store and perfect pick which are two of the big automated Warehouse Systems but there are a lot of other.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[6:08]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"6:08 - 6:19\" data-start=\"00:06:08.014\" data-end=\"00:06:19.166\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Startup automation things that could bring automated picking to store fulfillment or small fulfillment centers or.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"6:20 - 6:23\" data-start=\"00:06:19.846\" data-end=\"00:06:23.175\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Pick to light systems and gloves like a lot of.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"6:23 - 6:30\" data-start=\"00:06:23.469\" data-end=\"00:06:30.277\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Get more efficient about fulfilling omni-channel order stuff so automation was a big theme.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"6:31 - 6:38\" data-start=\"00:06:30.686\" data-end=\"00:06:38.089\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Another thing that got a lot of space and signage at the show was what all broadly call headless Commerce,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"6:38 - 6:49\" data-start=\"00:06:38.324\" data-end=\"00:06:48.989\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so Shopify made a big announcement right before the show that they were releasing a new offering called Shopify Commerce components and so this is kind of a.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"6:50 - 7:02\" data-start=\"00:06:50.492\" data-end=\"00:07:02.354\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Upmarket headless version of Shopify Shopify has always been kind of a monolithic web app that you know was a super good fit for very small start-up companies,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"7:03 - 7:07\" data-start=\"00:07:02.564\" data-end=\"00:07:07.473\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um and you know some of which have grown to be quite large on the platform,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"7:08 - 7:13\" data-start=\"00:07:07.714\" data-end=\"00:07:12.665\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and they\u2019ve always had a second offering called Shopify plus which was.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"7:13 - 7:21\" data-start=\"00:07:12.960\" data-end=\"00:07:21.366\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Intended to be more Enterprise features but the plus mostly meant more Enterprise sales features not necessarily a lot more Enterprise,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"7:22 - 7:26\" data-start=\"00:07:21.601\" data-end=\"00:07:26.372\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">features in the in the platform and so this new offering seems like.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[7:27]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"7:27 - 7:38\" data-start=\"00:07:27.316\" data-end=\"00:07:38.282\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">You know a pretty evolved set of apis and as a we\u2019ve talked about in a previous episode of this show,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"7:38 - 7:43\" data-start=\"00:07:38.481\" data-end=\"00:07:42.638\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">fine but they sometimes called the mock principles,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"7:43 - 7:50\" data-start=\"00:07:42.825\" data-end=\"00:07:50.036\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so they had a big booth that was mostly focused on this Shopify Commerce components,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"7:50 - 7:58\" data-start=\"00:07:50.252\" data-end=\"00:07:58.424\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Salesforce has a very similar offering they already are kind of more enterprise-e and so they were there and then there\u2019s a,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"7:59 - 8:09\" data-start=\"00:07:58.653\" data-end=\"00:08:09.391\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I want to call my startup they\u2019ve been around for a while now so I\u2019m not sure it\u2019s fair to call it a start-up but newer more modern Commerce platform.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"8:10 - 8:14\" data-start=\"00:08:09.644\" data-end=\"00:08:14.204\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">It\u2019s called Commerce tools in the chief strategy officer,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"8:14 - 8:29\" data-start=\"00:08:14.331\" data-end=\"00:08:28.548\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">from from from Commerce tools Kelly has been on our show before they had a huge presence a big booth and sponsored a bunch of stuff so there were between Shopify Salesforce and commerce tools,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"8:29 - 8:36\" data-start=\"00:08:28.771\" data-end=\"00:08:35.536\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">you definitely got a strong headless vibe in the show and then for old timers,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"8:36 - 8:48\" data-start=\"00:08:35.765\" data-end=\"00:08:48.390\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the trade show floor is divided into three sections there\u2019s an innovation Center which is all new startups there we had a great Innovation Center this year was mostly International companies so I companies from Israel companies from France,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"8:49 - 8:56\" data-start=\"00:08:48.582\" data-end=\"00:08:55.745\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">there were very small startup showing some pretty cool Tech there\u2019s the upstairs trade show for which is all the.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[8:56]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"8:56 - 9:03\" data-start=\"00:08:56.136\" data-end=\"00:09:02.817\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Kind of incumbent Legacy vendors the Microsoft\u2019s the oracles the ncr\u2019s,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"9:03 - 9:14\" data-start=\"00:09:02.980\" data-end=\"00:09:14.006\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">all the big players with a really big boost and then the more digital players that you know they might exhibit it shop talk or would have exhibited it at shop dot org in the past,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"9:14 - 9:28\" data-start=\"00:09:14.157\" data-end=\"00:09:27.527\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">they\u2019re in the downstairs exhibit hall and it all this is not true but it felt like this year one of the rules that was in place to exhibit at the downstairs exhibit hall is you had to rename your url to end in dot AI.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[9:30]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"9:30 - 9:34\" data-start=\"00:09:29.540\" data-end=\"00:09:34.311\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Every every single vendor downstairs.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"9:35 - 9:41\" data-start=\"00:09:34.588\" data-end=\"00:09:40.627\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Was you know some some execution of AI and some of them were super interesting and,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"9:41 - 9:49\" data-start=\"00:09:40.831\" data-end=\"00:09:48.613\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I think we\u2019ll talk about this later but I\u2019m very optimistic will be a big part of the Commerce ecosystem this year and some of them are,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"9:49 - 10:04\" data-start=\"00:09:48.805\" data-end=\"00:10:03.737\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">you know pretty speculative and far-fetched so so you know a good breath of everything and then I\u2019ll sum all that up that\u2019s what the floor look like the content you know is mostly,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"10:04 - 10:14\" data-start=\"00:10:03.948\" data-end=\"00:10:13.917\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">some some decent key notes from from Big retailers and the problem with key notes from the CEOs of big retards is they\u2019re not necessarily going to share anything.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[10:14]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"10:14 - 10:22\" data-start=\"00:10:14.422\" data-end=\"00:10:22.179\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Proprietary or new insightful like it\u2019s kind of interesting to hear their their philosophies but like I don\u2019t tend to learn a lot that I\u2019m going to use,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"10:22 - 10:27\" data-start=\"00:10:22.390\" data-end=\"00:10:27.119\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um in my day-to-day gig from the content sessions and in our f,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"10:27 - 10:38\" data-start=\"00:10:27.275\" data-end=\"00:10:38.428\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um but what I do love is talking to all the people in the halls and aisles and by far you know kind of trying to take everyone\u2019s temperature that I could I could get time with the overwhelming consensus was,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"10:39 - 10:47\" data-start=\"00:10:38.633\" data-end=\"00:10:46.606\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">this is 2023 is going to be a really uncertain year for retail that there\u2019s a lot of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"10:47 - 10:55\" data-start=\"00:10:46.793\" data-end=\"00:10:55.349\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">economic challenges that people are going to be really focused on profitability and a lot of the Retailer\u2019s talked about how,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"10:55 - 11:03\" data-start=\"00:10:55.422\" data-end=\"00:11:03.137\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um their budgets are getting reduced significantly that the focus is really going to be deploying that Capital against things that can have a short term.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"11:04 - 11:10\" data-start=\"00:11:03.504\" data-end=\"00:11:10.228\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Benefit to their cost structure and help them get their profitability up and so I kind of interpret that as.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"11:10 - 11:22\" data-start=\"00:11:10.487\" data-end=\"00:11:21.579\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">We\u2019re going to see a lot more a lot fewer investments in customer acquisition and front end systems and a lot more investment in back-end systems and optimizations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[11:23]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"11:23 - 11:33\" data-start=\"00:11:22.685\" data-end=\"00:11:33.273\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Pickle I got a million questions on Automation in you know kind of the state of Art and my mind is still the key the system is there something out there you think<\/span><br \/><span title=\"11:33 - 11:40\" data-start=\"00:11:33.129\" data-end=\"00:11:40.153\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">at least on the you kind of mentioned in store but I\u2019m thinking more Warehouse side anything there that\u2019s kind of.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[11:41]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"11:41 - 11:48\" data-start=\"00:11:40.604\" data-end=\"00:11:48.403\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah so there\u2019s two big vendor like so Kiva is Amazon\u2019s proprietary system and to my knowledge they don\u2019t sell it to others yet do they.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[11:49]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"11:49 - 11:52\" data-start=\"00:11:49.215\" data-end=\"00:11:51.943\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">No but it\u2019s still kind of the state of Missouri.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[11:52]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"11:52 - 12:01\" data-start=\"00:11:51.643\" data-end=\"00:12:01.046\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah yeah they certainly could have some point so so you know there\u2019s kind of two philosophies of these like big fulfillment center automation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[12:02]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"12:02 - 12:10\" data-start=\"00:12:01.732\" data-end=\"00:12:10.270\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Go go get bring the goods to a picker or you know you know so you actually move Isles which is what the key this system does it moves bins,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"12:10 - 12:22\" data-start=\"00:12:10.427\" data-end=\"00:12:21.736\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um to a human picker that then pulls them out so the picture gets to stand still or these fully automated systems that like you don\u2019t bring things in on conveyor belts and so there\u2019s two big vendors,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"12:22 - 12:29\" data-start=\"00:12:21.844\" data-end=\"00:12:29.043\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um there\u2019s a store a vendor called Auto store which is like a,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"12:29 - 12:42\" data-start=\"00:12:29.127\" data-end=\"00:12:41.950\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">very dense set of bins that are stacked quite high and they\u2019re shuttled around on conveyor belts so it\u2019s a 3D delivery system of these these bins,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"12:42 - 12:52\" data-start=\"00:12:42.047\" data-end=\"00:12:52.160\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and there\u2019s a bunch of big retailers if you\u2019ve highly automated your your fulfillment center in the u.s. like you\u2019re probably using Auto store or their competitor perfect,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"12:52 - 13:00\" data-start=\"00:12:52.406\" data-end=\"00:13:00.344\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and so both of those had full live demos at the show that where you know are super mesmerizing to watch because they have all these.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[13:01]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"13:01 - 13:06\" data-start=\"00:13:00.621\" data-end=\"00:13:06.245\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">These bins flying around but then went there were was a lot of startups that were more Kevo like,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"13:06 - 13:14\" data-start=\"00:13:06.456\" data-end=\"00:13:13.756\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so instead of like a conveyor belt that ends with your exact products you know in a bin ready to package,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"13:14 - 13:27\" data-start=\"00:13:13.913\" data-end=\"00:13:27.162\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um these are things that are like lifting shelves and moving the Shelf to a to a picker so even in that Innovation Center there were several Israeli companies that you know we\u2019re in a tiny little 10 by 10 booth,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"13:27 - 13:33\" data-start=\"00:13:27.313\" data-end=\"00:13:32.805\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">with the little robot that could you know lift up a gondola full of products and bring and move it around a warehouse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[13:34]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"13:34 - 13:36\" data-start=\"00:13:33.593\" data-end=\"00:13:36.008\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Merkel and then<\/span><br \/><span title=\"13:36 - 13:45\" data-start=\"00:13:35.972\" data-end=\"00:13:45.166\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">from afar I saw Shopify really hitting the we\u2019re headless to kind of train which I thought was interesting because they kind of have,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"13:45 - 13:48\" data-start=\"00:13:45.250\" data-end=\"00:13:47.816\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">you just kind of dip their toe in that water<\/span><br \/><span title=\"13:48 - 14:02\" data-start=\"00:13:47.720\" data-end=\"00:14:01.763\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I read it as they must be hitting some headwinds maybe at Shopify plus maybe some churn and realize they had to go into that market pretty hard so I wonder if our friends at Fabric and some of these other places were starting to take some share from.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[14:02]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"14:02 - 14:12\" data-start=\"00:14:02.478\" data-end=\"00:14:11.918\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah so I don\u2019t know if it\u2019s as explicit as taking share I think there\u2019s this notion new companies are highly likely to start life on Shopify and it\u2019s a.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"14:12 - 14:20\" data-start=\"00:14:12.339\" data-end=\"00:14:19.802\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">If a family member calls me and says I want to start a business and sell something online I\u2019m sending him to Shopify it\u2019s the easiest safest best best way to do it,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"14:20 - 14:27\" data-start=\"00:14:19.983\" data-end=\"00:14:27.355\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so there\u2019s a notion that those companies ought to grow up and you know either by something else or spend a lot more money with Shopify,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"14:27 - 14:35\" data-start=\"00:14:27.470\" data-end=\"00:14:35.095\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and so I think a lot of people looked at Shopify plus and they said oh yeah that\u2019s that\u2019s for the startup companies to evolve into,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"14:35 - 14:43\" data-start=\"00:14:35.174\" data-end=\"00:14:43.448\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and then I think a lot of people are looking at the these Shopify Commerce components in that same way I actually suspect that\u2019s not the case,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"14:44 - 14:48\" data-start=\"00:14:43.544\" data-end=\"00:14:48.213\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the overwhelming majority of startups that start on Shopify are are going to go out of business,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"14:48 - 14:54\" data-start=\"00:14:48.363\" data-end=\"00:14:54.204\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">right I just the attrition rate is super high and so most companies aren\u2019t getting bigger and need a bigger platform,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"14:54 - 15:06\" data-start=\"00:14:54.306\" data-end=\"00:15:06.072\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um the I think what they\u2019re trying to do by having a mid-tier kind of mid-market offering is not so much help their existing customer base to grow its to acquire,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"15:06 - 15:07\" data-start=\"00:15:06.204\" data-end=\"00:15:07.045\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um<\/span><br \/><span title=\"15:07 - 15:18\" data-start=\"00:15:07.148\" data-end=\"00:15:17.898\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">a new customer base that you know frankly has a little more proven business model and a little more stability to kind of help them with their Journey a little bit right and so,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"15:18 - 15:22\" data-start=\"00:15:18.000\" data-end=\"00:15:22.278\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um I think that was the intent but far behind Shopify Plus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[15:23]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"15:23 - 15:32\" data-start=\"00:15:23.234\" data-end=\"00:15:32.079\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Shopify plus never got a ton of traction and they actually had a pretty big staff reduction in Shopify plus earlier last year so.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"15:32 - 15:39\" data-start=\"00:15:32.350\" data-end=\"00:15:38.653\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">E-commerce components does feel like a restart like they\u2019re tackling I think the right problem this time like before they were tackling,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"15:39 - 15:47\" data-start=\"00:15:38.894\" data-end=\"00:15:47.402\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the Professional Services that they thought you know an Enterprise client would want in order to use Shopify this time they\u2019re there they\u2019re tackling the.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"15:48 - 15:55\" data-start=\"00:15:47.703\" data-end=\"00:15:55.430\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The functionality and the flexibility that a mid-market or Enterprise client might want so I think this is going to be,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"15:56 - 16:05\" data-start=\"00:15:55.569\" data-end=\"00:16:04.750\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">an interesting play but I don\u2019t think it\u2019s so much that Bigcommerce or Fabric or Commerce tools,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"16:05 - 16:18\" data-start=\"00:16:04.973\" data-end=\"00:16:17.700\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um stoled customers from Shopify I think it\u2019s more Shopify want some of those customers in its ecosystem as well and obviously they have a lot of resources to go after them so that\u2019s kind of how.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"16:18 - 16:19\" data-start=\"00:16:18.001\" data-end=\"00:16:19.304\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">How I interpreted it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[16:20]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"16:20 - 16:26\" data-start=\"00:16:20.050\" data-end=\"00:16:26.065\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">We will agree to disagree on the a.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[16:26]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"16:26 - 16:29\" data-start=\"00:16:25.765\" data-end=\"00:16:28.853\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">As we\u2019re about to find out from the predictions I am occasionally wrong.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[16:29]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"16:29 - 16:36\" data-start=\"00:16:29.130\" data-end=\"00:16:35.589\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah we all are this is the The Humbling part of this program is trying to make predictions<\/span><br \/><span title=\"16:35 - 16:45\" data-start=\"00:16:35.421\" data-end=\"00:16:44.843\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">and this current world we live in AI everything was one of the things you have to have a DOT AI anything that blew your mind,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"16:45 - 16:54\" data-start=\"00:16:44.861\" data-end=\"00:16:54.415\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">you and I had chatted about you know we\u2019re starting to see a eyes for example that\u2019ll create product detail Pages where you anything getting some traction or is it all just.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[16:54]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"16:54 - 17:03\" data-start=\"00:16:54.121\" data-end=\"00:17:02.672\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah so so I so a I think there\u2019s a trend that\u2019s super annoying to me I\u2019m old and curmudgeonly is everyone knows but like,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"17:03 - 17:17\" data-start=\"00:17:02.871\" data-end=\"00:17:17.148\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">there are a bunch of companies that are decided to AI is cool and then they\u2019re just desperately looking for a problem to solve with AI and so and sometimes they don\u2019t understand the space very well or the problems or the economics of the problem very well and so there are a bunch of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"17:17 - 17:19\" data-start=\"00:17:17.370\" data-end=\"00:17:18.848\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">AI companies,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"17:19 - 17:28\" data-start=\"00:17:19.083\" data-end=\"00:17:27.946\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the I don\u2019t find particularly interesting right like there\u2019s probably 30 AI companies that are like we\u2019re personalization engine to do better product recommendations with a i.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[17:29]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"17:29 - 17:35\" data-start=\"00:17:29.232\" data-end=\"00:17:35.055\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">And personalized product recommendations is super important there are,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"17:35 - 17:42\" data-start=\"00:17:35.277\" data-end=\"00:17:42.404\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">15 Enterprise products that have been using AI for 15 years and are the is the AI getting much better.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[17:43]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"17:43 - 17:45\" data-start=\"00:17:43.059\" data-end=\"00:17:45.414\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yes but.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"17:46 - 17:54\" data-start=\"00:17:45.751\" data-end=\"00:17:53.671\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Like the you\u2019re not necessarily like bringing anything new to the party when you\u2019re you know a small start-up in that space,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"17:54 - 17:59\" data-start=\"00:17:53.864\" data-end=\"00:17:58.935\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um so there are you know some things I don\u2019t get super excited about.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"18:00 - 18:10\" data-start=\"00:17:59.524\" data-end=\"00:18:10.352\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The AI for inventory management is super interesting like these models that are doing demand forecasting that are doing kind of.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"18:11 - 18:23\" data-start=\"00:18:10.839\" data-end=\"00:18:23.440\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">You know most retailers kind of have a pretty simplistic model for for inventory balancing like you know what what inventory do I put in what fulfillment center how much extra inventory do put in a store for store fulfillment,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"18:24 - 18:29\" data-start=\"00:18:23.542\" data-end=\"00:18:29.479\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">things like that and now they\u2019re using AI to make that much more robust,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"18:30 - 18:39\" data-start=\"00:18:29.642\" data-end=\"00:18:38.847\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um AI promotion engines so you know instead of kind of a one-size-fits-all promotion where hey we\u2019re going to do 30% off this product across the whole country,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"18:39 - 18:48\" data-start=\"00:18:38.974\" data-end=\"00:18:48.275\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um we\u2019re going to you know throw some business rules to an AI engine that\u2019s going to decide like when and where to offer a promotion and it\u2019s going to,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"18:49 - 18:55\" data-start=\"00:18:48.516\" data-end=\"00:18:55.480\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">factor in a lot more localized factors and personalization factors and so you know there might be deeper discounts and,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"18:56 - 19:02\" data-start=\"00:18:55.673\" data-end=\"00:19:02.132\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">in some stores and other some circumstances and others are even in someday Parts than others so so I think all of.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"19:03 - 19:11\" data-start=\"00:19:02.583\" data-end=\"00:19:11.032\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">AI to improve these existing business processes is super interesting and then the the new use cases.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[19:12]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"19:12 - 19:27\" data-start=\"00:19:11.693\" data-end=\"00:19:26.535\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019m very convinced that the majority of e-commerce content the majority of product descriptions we read attributes we read are going to be written by AI in the future like it\u2019s gotten really good there\u2019s a bunch of benefits to having it read it.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"19:27 - 19:41\" data-start=\"00:19:26.836\" data-end=\"00:19:40.897\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019m about in the old days Channel advisor at a bunch of clients they created product content for and then they syndicated that content to a bunch of different retailers and one problem was that content was the same at all those retailers so from an SEO standpoint it didn\u2019t look very unique,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"19:41 - 19:48\" data-start=\"00:19:41.083\" data-end=\"00:19:47.507\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and one of the things that a I can do trivially is take your master product content and make 10 variants that are.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[19:48]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"19:48 - 19:56\" data-start=\"00:19:48.048\" data-end=\"00:19:56.358\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Equally human readable but are unique so that you could Syndicate different content to eBay Amazon and Walmart for example which is.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"19:57 - 20:00\" data-start=\"00:19:56.647\" data-end=\"00:19:59.507\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Pretty cool and as we talked with mad about last week,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"20:00 - 20:12\" data-start=\"00:19:59.736\" data-end=\"00:20:12.432\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">you know Goodwill finds is using AI to onboard all their new skews pretty efficiently so I think it\u2019s really good for that and then the last thing I\u2019ll say is there\u2019s a lot of super interesting stuff around computer vision so both,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"20:13 - 20:15\" data-start=\"00:20:12.631\" data-end=\"00:20:14.770\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">pulling product attributes out of pictures,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"20:15 - 20:25\" data-start=\"00:20:14.914\" data-end=\"00:20:25.244\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um using the security cameras in the store to to do inventory checks and to do merchandise and compliance checks and pricing checks,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"20:25 - 20:39\" data-start=\"00:20:25.394\" data-end=\"00:20:38.992\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um and stuff like that and using that that inventory to understand customer using those security cameras to understand customer Behavior better even using computer vision to do better loss prevention which loss prevention,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"20:39 - 20:46\" data-start=\"00:20:39.209\" data-end=\"00:20:45.777\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">is a really big issue with this show and there\u2019s an explosion in organized crime this year and so that you know kind of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"20:46 - 20:57\" data-start=\"00:20:46.023\" data-end=\"00:20:56.779\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">predicting crime events is kind of an interesting thing the days a eyes doing so like plugging a i into a camera is yielding I think a lot of pretty interesting use cases for retailgeek.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[20:57]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"20:57 - 21:04\" data-start=\"00:20:57.056\" data-end=\"00:21:03.798\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah very cool did you get to see some of our favorite folks.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[21:04]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"21:04 - 21:15\" data-start=\"00:21:03.936\" data-end=\"00:21:15.299\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I did I did I saw a lot of past guests I think I made a joke on Twitter which we\u2019re going to have to do a separate show about how sad I am about everything that\u2019s happening on Twitter,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"21:15 - 21:19\" data-start=\"00:21:15.432\" data-end=\"00:21:18.754\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">but the.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"21:19 - 21:34\" data-start=\"00:21:19.392\" data-end=\"00:21:34.240\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The most common thing that happens to me now is I have a loud obnoxious voice that everyone at this trade show can recognize yrg from this podcast and so everyone is super excited and I get tons of compliments I feel bad that you weren\u2019t there because it\u2019s kind of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"21:34 - 21:40\" data-start=\"00:21:34.432\" data-end=\"00:21:40.435\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">it feels nice to have all these people recognized us and talk about how we\u2019re you know an important part of their,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"21:41 - 21:46\" data-start=\"00:21:40.622\" data-end=\"00:21:46.210\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">there we can help them in their job so I really appreciate that and I want to say hi to everyone I,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"21:46 - 21:58\" data-start=\"00:21:46.282\" data-end=\"00:21:57.855\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I did cross paths with at NRF it was awesome to meet you and thanks for for stopping and saying hello but then the next word out of their mouth is where is Scott because I\u2019m way more interested in meeting Scott than I was in meeting you.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"22:00 - 22:04\" data-start=\"00:22:00.181\" data-end=\"00:22:03.804\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">And I have to say that you\u2019re you\u2019re too much of a big deal the coming in or out.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[22:04]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"22:04 - 22:15\" data-start=\"00:22:04.171\" data-end=\"00:22:14.915\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">No just I\u2019m allergic to the cold and had a little bit of work to do on my side the auto industry\u2019s on a different cycle than the retail industry sadly.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[22:15]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"22:15 - 22:19\" data-start=\"00:22:15.000\" data-end=\"00:22:19.019\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah but they are they are colliding have you like Auto Commerce is going to be a big thing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[22:19]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"22:19 - 22:26\" data-start=\"00:22:18.767\" data-end=\"00:22:26.050\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yes yes was almost all Automotive companies which is kind of out of never did not have that on my bingo card.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[22:27]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"22:27 - 22:32\" data-start=\"00:22:26.597\" data-end=\"00:22:31.662\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah they\u2019re going to have to rename it AES or something Auto Electronics Show.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[22:43]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"22:43 - 22:55\" data-start=\"00:22:42.527\" data-end=\"00:22:55.290\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah as everyone knows my pandemic hobby is trenching US Department of Commerce retail data in Tableau and kind of annoying that in our F ended on Tuesday night,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"22:56 - 23:06\" data-start=\"00:22:55.507\" data-end=\"00:23:06.335\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so try to get up Wednesday morning and fly home but I had to wait to leave my hotel room because the 8:30 in the morning Eastern Time on Wednesday the US Department of Commerce published,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"23:07 - 23:16\" data-start=\"00:23:06.558\" data-end=\"00:23:16.364\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">their monthly retail sales data and this month is particularly exciting to me because it\u2019s the December data so that lets us do two things.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"23:17 - 23:27\" data-start=\"00:23:17.001\" data-end=\"00:23:26.730\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Look at November and December together and kind of understand what happened in holiday and then it also obviously lets us Wicked January through December and start talking about,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"23:27 - 23:34\" data-start=\"00:23:26.928\" data-end=\"00:23:34.103\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">20:22 as a whole year which lets me retire all my 2021 talking points so so that was exciting.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[23:36]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"23:36 - 23:38\" data-start=\"00:23:35.593\" data-end=\"00:23:37.672\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Recap of what what did we learn.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[23:37]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"23:37 - 23:52\" data-start=\"00:23:37.384\" data-end=\"00:23:52.292\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah so that\u2019s about a four-hour show but I\u2019m gonna recap the two top lines in under 30 seconds so we\u2019ll start with a holiday so if you add November and December sales which I would argue the best view of holiday is November December January,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"23:53 - 23:59\" data-start=\"00:23:52.509\" data-end=\"00:23:59.112\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">generate data is not available in a lot of people think of holidays November and December so if we just talked about November and December,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"23:59 - 24:04\" data-start=\"00:23:59.125\" data-end=\"00:24:04.497\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and I\u2019m going to take a narrow definition of retail for purposes of holiday I\u2019m going to pull cars out,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"24:05 - 24:16\" data-start=\"00:24:04.599\" data-end=\"00:24:16.160\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019m going to pull restaurants out and I\u2019m going to put gas stations out because it\u2019s a super volatile thing that\u2019s not very tied to Holiday behaviors so November and December sales were up,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"24:16 - 24:25\" data-start=\"00:24:16.335\" data-end=\"00:24:25.450\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">5.2% versus last year so from 2021 which was a monster year we went up another 5.2%,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"24:26 - 24:30\" data-start=\"00:24:25.631\" data-end=\"00:24:29.849\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">now most people were disappointed when they saw that number,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"24:30 - 24:38\" data-start=\"00:24:30.024\" data-end=\"00:24:37.835\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">big for a couple reasons last year we were up 13.4 percent using the same definition of retail so.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[24:38]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"24:38 - 24:47\" data-start=\"00:24:38.094\" data-end=\"00:24:46.800\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">You know a much lower rate of growth in last year and most people you know are having to comp against last year and they set their financial goals based on last year,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"24:47 - 24:53\" data-start=\"00:24:46.981\" data-end=\"00:24:53.242\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and also in the middle of holiday like especially around Black Friday a lot of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"24:53 - 25:05\" data-start=\"00:24:53.423\" data-end=\"00:25:05.380\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">third-party analyst publish a prediction they say we have Secret inside data we have credit card data and we think retail sales are going to be 9% or 12% or you know there were all these estimates,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"25:05 - 25:07\" data-start=\"00:25:05.393\" data-end=\"00:25:06.702\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">there were optimistic,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"25:07 - 25:20\" data-start=\"00:25:06.805\" data-end=\"00:25:20.163\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">all the digital guys came out and said digital sales are up significantly from the previous year and the inner F came out with these vague statements and said like more people are going to be shopping on Black Friday than ever before so you heard all this good news around Black Friday which made you think.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[25:20]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"25:20 - 25:30\" data-start=\"00:25:20.482\" data-end=\"00:25:30.258\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">This is going to be a big holiday season and then and so you 5.2 sounds like a huge disappointment compared to some of that over exuberant,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"25:31 - 25:33\" data-start=\"00:25:30.505\" data-end=\"00:25:33.293\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">but to put that in perspective.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[25:34]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"25:34 - 25:42\" data-start=\"00:25:34.248\" data-end=\"00:25:41.837\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The historical average growth is four point four percent so 5.2% is meaningfully above the historical average,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"25:42 - 25:47\" data-start=\"00:25:41.994\" data-end=\"00:25:47.107\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and I don\u2019t want to say I told you so but all of you that attended my webinars about holiday performance,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"25:47 - 25:55\" data-start=\"00:25:47.240\" data-end=\"00:25:55.093\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I heard that that I was predicting in that five to five and a half percent even even back then so so there\u2019s a rare occasion of me getting it right.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"25:56 - 26:08\" data-start=\"00:25:55.767\" data-end=\"00:26:08.283\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Here\u2019s the piece of bad news about that whole thing that 5.2% was all inflation so if if you adjust those two months for inflation we were actually down 1.8% from last,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"26:08 - 26:12\" data-start=\"00:26:08.440\" data-end=\"00:26:11.540\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so the big takeaway from holiday is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[26:12]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"26:12 - 26:20\" data-start=\"00:26:12.058\" data-end=\"00:26:20.049\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">It was disappointing it was much more difficult to make a profit on this holiday than it has the last several Prophets,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"26:20 - 26:29\" data-start=\"00:26:20.212\" data-end=\"00:26:28.714\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so a lot of retailers came in a holiday with pretty robust inventory levels they didn\u2019t sell through their inventory what they sold they didn\u2019t sell it particular High margins,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"26:29 - 26:35\" data-start=\"00:26:28.913\" data-end=\"00:26:34.777\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um and so that\u2019s setting us up for a uneasy first half of 2023,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"26:35 - 26:47\" data-start=\"00:26:34.952\" data-end=\"00:26:46.874\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">retailers have too much inventory and and not enough recent profit so we\u2019re likely going to see a lot of discounting and you know more pressure on on income as they kind of work through all that in.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[26:47]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"26:47 - 27:01\" data-start=\"00:26:47.343\" data-end=\"00:27:00.556\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So that\u2019s the holiday Debbie Downer the full year is I think a better story the full year we sold seven point one trillion dollars worth of stuff which that\u2019s the first time we passed the seven trillion dollar mark,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"27:01 - 27:06\" data-start=\"00:27:00.725\" data-end=\"00:27:06.199\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">that\u2019s up 8.2 percent from last year again last year was a monster year,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"27:06 - 27:11\" data-start=\"00:27:06.307\" data-end=\"00:27:10.886\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the best year in my my career of retail so,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"27:11 - 27:21\" data-start=\"00:27:10.904\" data-end=\"00:27:21.336\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">being up 8.2% versus that you know again is a really good story it\u2019s a bad news is you pull inflation out of that and we were basically flat we were up 0.2.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"27:22 - 27:30\" data-start=\"00:27:21.649\" data-end=\"00:27:30.019\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Um so through that lens 2022 was not a fabulous year but the one thing I would say is,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"27:30 - 27:36\" data-start=\"00:27:30.193\" data-end=\"00:27:35.799\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">what\u2019s really interesting is where is retail compared to before the pandemic and cumulatively,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"27:36 - 27:44\" data-start=\"00:27:35.950\" data-end=\"00:27:44.477\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">retails up 31% from 2019 so so the full year of 2022 is 31 percent higher than 20,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"27:45 - 27:51\" data-start=\"00:27:44.633\" data-end=\"00:27:51.237\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um an average year over the last 20 years in retail for a full year would be up 4.7% so.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"27:52 - 27:59\" data-start=\"00:27:51.664\" data-end=\"00:27:59.367\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">31% is still almost twice what we would expect over a three-year kakkar so you know not a,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"28:00 - 28:08\" data-start=\"00:27:59.566\" data-end=\"00:28:08.447\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">knock it out of the park year but still you know very healthy industry on the backside of this pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[28:09]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"28:09 - 28:18\" data-start=\"00:28:08.585\" data-end=\"00:28:18.368\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">So if we kind of you know there\u2019s that famous chart you hate and then we reverted to the mean does this mean we\u2019re kind of back on the meat.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[28:19]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"28:19 - 28:22\" data-start=\"00:28:18.536\" data-end=\"00:28:21.553\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Because it\u2019s wrong and I get to make fun of it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[28:21]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"28:21 - 28:35\" data-start=\"00:28:20.513\" data-end=\"00:28:34.766\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Do you love to hate how about that are you hate to love I don\u2019t know and the so we reverted kind of back to the mean do you think that this kind of resets and we get back to that kind of traditional growth.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[28:35]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"28:35 - 28:45\" data-start=\"00:28:35.476\" data-end=\"00:28:45.180\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I still think there\u2019s some factors yet to play out so I\u2019m not sure we\u2019re going to get completely back to normal for 2023 I think we\u2019re going to,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"28:45 - 28:51\" data-start=\"00:28:45.349\" data-end=\"00:28:51.496\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">we are still seeing some residual pandemic effects and the main residual pandemic effect we\u2019re seeing is.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"28:52 - 28:59\" data-start=\"00:28:52.229\" data-end=\"00:28:58.635\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The spending is still skewing to experiences more than Goods so there was pent up demand for experiences,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"28:59 - 29:05\" data-start=\"00:28:58.725\" data-end=\"00:29:04.860\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so we\u2019re you know we\u2019re we\u2019re possible we\u2019re seeing people invest more in experiences and less than Goods,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"29:05 - 29:15\" data-start=\"00:29:04.902\" data-end=\"00:29:15.466\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">but we\u2019re also starting to see a lot more economic uncertainty especially in the bottom two quartiles and so you know you\u2019re starting to see even kind of lower middle class people,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"29:15 - 29:24\" data-start=\"00:29:15.490\" data-end=\"00:29:24.480\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">change their purchase Behavior you know you\u2019re hearing in Macy\u2019s earnings that they\u2019re saying their consumers start starting to make some,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"29:25 - 29:30\" data-start=\"00:29:24.684\" data-end=\"00:29:30.086\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">you know economic trades in their purchase behaviors and so a lot of that\u2019s going to be.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"29:31 - 29:38\" data-start=\"00:29:30.513\" data-end=\"00:29:37.898\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Kind of cooked into this 2023 so I don\u2019t think we\u2019re quite back to kind of perfectly the mean but I do think the,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"29:38 - 29:46\" data-start=\"00:29:38.085\" data-end=\"00:29:46.322\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the ratio of store sales to e-commerce is likely to look a lot more normal this year than it has the last couple of years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[29:47]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"29:47 - 29:51\" data-start=\"00:29:47.080\" data-end=\"00:29:50.823\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Pretty cool and this is the one that doesn\u2019t really give us e-commerce data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[29:51]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"29:51 - 30:00\" data-start=\"00:29:51.298\" data-end=\"00:30:00.288\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah there\u2019s some loose e-commerce data in there which is why I didn\u2019t quote it but next month they will publish the queue for e-commerce data so that will give us.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"30:01 - 30:16\" data-start=\"00:30:01.201\" data-end=\"00:30:15.701\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">A full year of e-commerce,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"30:16 - 30:20\" data-start=\"00:30:15.821\" data-end=\"00:30:19.709\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">you know we\u2019re starting to use these T numbers instead of B numbers in e-commerce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[30:21]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"30:21 - 30:28\" data-start=\"00:30:21.079\" data-end=\"00:30:27.899\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Got it cool we\u2019ll have to do a big show on that one and you can just have a two hours a day spewing data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[30:28]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"30:28 - 30:35\" data-start=\"00:30:27.605\" data-end=\"00:30:34.532\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Why I can describe my charts it\u2019s soup there\u2019s no more fascinating podcast than listening to a dude drone on about a chart.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[30:34]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"30:34 - 30:41\" data-start=\"00:30:34.432\" data-end=\"00:30:41.354\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah that he can\u2019t see alright world will put a put a pin in that one and come back to it,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"30:41 - 30:53\" data-start=\"00:30:41.444\" data-end=\"00:30:53.420\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">on the all right so let\u2019s talk about predictions so I had to go back and one of our many interns research this it was back on episode 284 where we did our predictions and<\/span><br \/><span title=\"30:53 - 31:04\" data-start=\"00:30:53.312\" data-end=\"00:31:03.647\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">as is our custom we like to rate and review the prior Year\u2019s predictions and then lay down a stake for the next year so if we go<\/span><br \/><span title=\"31:04 - 31:10\" data-start=\"00:31:03.564\" data-end=\"00:31:09.813\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I guess you\u2019ll kick it off so you\u2019ll go through my predictions and I\u2019ll say how I did and you\u2019ll kind of chimed in and then we\u2019ll flip.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[31:10]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"31:10 - 31:16\" data-start=\"00:31:10.288\" data-end=\"00:31:16.104\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Awesome and are we going to do off of yours and then all five of mine is that the easiest way to do okay.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"31:17 - 31:26\" data-start=\"00:31:17.204\" data-end=\"00:31:26.295\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So we\u2019ll start with your first prediction Amazon is going to start getting serious about a Shopify competitor in potentially double down on headless.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[31:27]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"31:27 - 31:40\" data-start=\"00:31:26.698\" data-end=\"00:31:39.636\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yet this was a Miss as far as I know you know what I didn\u2019t see coming was Amazon has had a bit of a rough year in and especially the back half of 22 you know they\u2019ve done some layoffs they\u2019ve,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"31:40 - 31:45\" data-start=\"00:31:39.792\" data-end=\"00:31:45.428\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">shuddered a lot of their physical stores they stopped their plans for big grocery expansion.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"31:46 - 31:59\" data-start=\"00:31:46.072\" data-end=\"00:31:58.666\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I\u2019ll get that get that out on the record here early and yeah they\u2019ve even started shedding warehouses so I think you know what what\u2019s happened is in this post there\u2019s been some really fascinating articles where,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"31:59 - 32:08\" data-start=\"00:31:58.871\" data-end=\"00:32:08.233\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">turns out they had this automated inventory system and its name is Scott ironically with one t and it.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"32:09 - 32:18\" data-start=\"00:32:08.540\" data-end=\"00:32:17.865\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">They trusted this thing so wholesale lie that it just went kind of Rogue and did not see the downturn you know this.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"32:18 - 32:21\" data-start=\"00:32:18.413\" data-end=\"00:32:21.375\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Track attacking back to the mean and<\/span><br \/><span title=\"32:21 - 32:33\" data-start=\"00:32:21.339\" data-end=\"00:32:32.924\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">it kind of went Bonkers and so it\u2019s a little bit of an interesting case study of AI gone wrong and that has them having their hands very busy with their Core Business and they have not had a chance to<\/span><br \/><span title=\"32:33 - 32:41\" data-start=\"00:32:32.768\" data-end=\"00:32:40.531\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">punch Shopify in the nose and in some ways they may not have to because Shopify also had a lot of wind come out of it sales.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[32:41]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"32:41 - 32:54\" data-start=\"00:32:40.892\" data-end=\"00:32:53.745\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah yeah I agree and I\u2019m inclined to give you a note that too but if I were making an argument that you got it partially right the argument would be that they rolled out a really interesting feature called by with.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"32:54 - 33:03\" data-start=\"00:32:54.004\" data-end=\"00:33:03.354\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">And we talked about on the show we had a beta tester on the show that was super bullish on it and it\u2019s kind of a trojan horse that creates them interesting.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"33:04 - 33:13\" data-start=\"00:33:03.685\" data-end=\"00:33:13.311\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Problems for Shopify that like frankly I\u2019m still not sure shopify\u2019s figured out what they\u2019re going to do about but that went from a pilot program to full deployment.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"33:14 - 33:23\" data-start=\"00:33:13.738\" data-end=\"00:33:23.010\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The week before in our F and it was a major feature of Amazon\u2019s booth and it\u2019s weird they branded the booth AWS but like.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"33:24 - 33:30\" data-start=\"00:33:23.539\" data-end=\"00:33:30.214\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The booth was talking more about by with prime than it was a WS and and you know they\u2019re not they\u2019re not in the same divisions Within.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[33:31]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"33:31 - 33:37\" data-start=\"00:33:30.906\" data-end=\"00:33:37.419\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Um so you could argue by with prime is partly a Shopify competitor,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"33:38 - 33:46\" data-start=\"00:33:37.630\" data-end=\"00:33:45.868\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">but in the interest of me staying competitive in the predictions I\u2019m not gonna not giving it to you and I will say,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"33:46 - 33:49\" data-start=\"00:33:46.061\" data-end=\"00:33:48.987\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">of your Amazon commentary is certainly true,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"33:49 - 34:04\" data-start=\"00:33:49.143\" data-end=\"00:34:03.775\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">but be a little careful like you know people tend to look at some of that and go oh man Amazon\u2019s really flailing like they\u2019re really feeling you know it\u2019s a huge thing for them to cut back on their fulfillment capacity and you know cancel some leases and just remember,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"34:04 - 34:09\" data-start=\"00:34:03.986\" data-end=\"00:34:08.967\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">they bought more fulfillment capacity than anyone else in the world has in a single year.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"34:09 - 34:15\" data-start=\"00:34:09.352\" data-end=\"00:34:14.567\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The year before so it\u2019s it\u2019s not like they\u2019re getting out of retail.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[34:15]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"34:15 - 34:16\" data-start=\"00:34:15.121\" data-end=\"00:34:16.406\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">You\u2019re spoiling one of my.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[34:16]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"34:16 - 34:26\" data-start=\"00:34:16.106\" data-end=\"00:34:26.027\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Find that people over over read into the you know that accurate \u2013 news but they think it\u2019s it\u2019s a more material part of Amazon\u2019s business than it is.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[34:27]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"34:27 - 34:30\" data-start=\"00:34:26.682\" data-end=\"00:34:30.173\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah I integrated that into one of my future predictions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[34:31]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"34:31 - 34:45\" data-start=\"00:34:31.381\" data-end=\"00:34:44.991\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">All right so so we\u2019re going over one I like it so far I\u2019m winning that your second prediction is Amazon puts a hurting on go puff and others go puff gorilla and Joker.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"34:46 - 34:48\" data-start=\"00:34:45.665\" data-end=\"00:34:47.665\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Don\u2019t get out of 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[34:48]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"34:48 - 35:00\" data-start=\"00:34:48.225\" data-end=\"00:34:59.756\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah I\u2019m going to score this one a win I don\u2019t I think somebody\u2019s out our business and I think go Puffs on its last legs if it\u2019s did it do a Down Round and layoffs and I don\u2019t.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"35:00 - 35:08\" data-start=\"00:35:00.050\" data-end=\"00:35:07.501\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I certainly haven\u2019t even used it I don\u2019t know if it\u2019s I\u2019m sure it\u2019s still around but I feel like it is on its last legs and<\/span><br \/><span title=\"35:07 - 35:11\" data-start=\"00:35:07.273\" data-end=\"00:35:11.287\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I\u2019m increasingly here in North Carolina like in Chicago you\u2019ve had this for a while<\/span><br \/><span title=\"35:11 - 35:23\" data-start=\"00:35:11.059\" data-end=\"00:35:23.119\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I\u2019m increasingly getting offers that say Hey if you if you throw a little bit more in the cart you can get this thing overnight which has been kind of you know I feel like Amazon is really starting to shorten that delivery window<\/span><br \/><span title=\"35:23 - 35:26\" data-start=\"00:35:23.053\" data-end=\"00:35:25.661\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">in this post covid world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[35:26]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"35:26 - 35:40\" data-start=\"00:35:25.559\" data-end=\"00:35:39.710\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah so I\u2019ll give you a yes for that I do think a lot of the instant delivery companies like pulled out of markets or flat went out of business or left the US in 2020 so I think that\u2019s fair.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"35:40 - 35:44\" data-start=\"00:35:40.113\" data-end=\"00:35:44.217\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019m not sure go puff is publicly position themselves as quite as dire,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"35:44 - 35:57\" data-start=\"00:35:44.337\" data-end=\"00:35:56.644\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">as you did I could be wrong but they you know they\u2019re the biggest player left standing and and I think they have some some positive and negative indicators.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"35:57 - 36:07\" data-start=\"00:35:56.932\" data-end=\"00:36:06.877\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The one thing I would quibble with is it\u2019s not clear to me if they are if all this instant Commerce not working is because Amazon put a hurt on them or whether,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"36:07 - 36:12\" data-start=\"00:36:07.112\" data-end=\"00:36:12.021\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">it just wasn\u2019t a good business model than enough customers were willing to pay for.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"36:12 - 36:21\" data-start=\"00:36:12.412\" data-end=\"00:36:21.070\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Anyway right so I\u2019m not sure if Amazon was the direct cause of all that pain or not but I do secretly think,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"36:21 - 36:28\" data-start=\"00:36:21.269\" data-end=\"00:36:27.993\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Amazon has much better service levels than a lot of people realize you live in a wonderful place but it\u2019s.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"36:29 - 36:40\" data-start=\"00:36:28.612\" data-end=\"00:36:39.602\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">It\u2019s probably not a tier-one market for Amazon I talk to a lot of people in cities that The the vast majority of their orders are delivered same day and certainly the vast majority of stuff I ordered from Amazon,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"36:40 - 36:48\" data-start=\"00:36:39.717\" data-end=\"00:36:48.057\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I get that order in by noon and it\u2019s it my doorstep before 10:00 that night and so that still is different than this instant delivery but.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[36:49]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"36:49 - 36:59\" data-start=\"00:36:48.923\" data-end=\"00:36:59.030\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I think Amazon\u2019s service level is darn impressive and I think you know that certainly you didn\u2019t want to be an investor in instant delivery in 2022.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"36:59 - 37:01\" data-start=\"00:36:59.295\" data-end=\"00:37:00.778\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So I\u2019ll give you a yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[37:01]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"37:01 - 37:03\" data-start=\"00:37:01.404\" data-end=\"00:37:03.476\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yes Pooh okay.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[37:06]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"37:06 - 37:12\" data-start=\"00:37:05.652\" data-end=\"00:37:11.757\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So your third one is metaverse lots of demo videos no Revenue.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[37:13]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"37:13 - 37:26\" data-start=\"00:37:12.581\" data-end=\"00:37:25.764\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah think I nailed this one the Facebook has had a lot of Pi interface for spending an inordinate billions and billions of dollars on the Oculus the sales have dramatically underperformed even<\/span><br \/><span title=\"37:26 - 37:41\" data-start=\"00:37:25.746\" data-end=\"00:37:40.630\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">you know even moderate to light expectations there\u2019s no real use case that\u2019s popped out of here and then just generally and then certainly if we look at our e-commerce world there\u2019s really not much going on here so this one\u2019s been kind of a dud I\u2019m a little<\/span><br \/><span title=\"37:41 - 37:49\" data-start=\"00:37:40.571\" data-end=\"00:37:48.677\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">bummed because I love AR and VR I just don\u2019t think we\u2019ve kind of come up with the use case I think the wild card on<\/span><br \/><span title=\"37:48 - 37:58\" data-start=\"00:37:48.437\" data-end=\"00:37:57.618\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">this technology is there\u2019s increasingly detailed rumors of Apple having a device and if anyone can figure this out I think applicant but until they do,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"37:58 - 38:01\" data-start=\"00:37:57.739\" data-end=\"00:38:01.127\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I think we\u2019re not going to see a lot of metaverse updates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[38:01]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"38:01 - 38:07\" data-start=\"00:38:01.350\" data-end=\"00:38:06.956\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah yeah I think this is a category that to me like if people are familiar with the Gartner hype cycle it fits it perfectly like.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"38:07 - 38:16\" data-start=\"00:38:07.485\" data-end=\"00:38:16.156\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">There definitely is a chance that there will be a version of The Meta verse that\u2019s very meaningful at some point but right now it\u2019s wildly overhyped.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"38:17 - 38:22\" data-start=\"00:38:17.094\" data-end=\"00:38:22.159\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">One could quibble with your in precise language like you say no revenue and of course there are some,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"38:22 - 38:33\" data-start=\"00:38:22.400\" data-end=\"00:38:32.693\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">some novel examples where there\u2019s a little bit of Revenue and the one that has meaningful revenue is for the kids is real box where you know it\u2019s.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"38:33 - 38:46\" data-start=\"00:38:32.982\" data-end=\"00:38:45.528\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Game Revenue it gets its you know ingame credit it\u2019s not like you know people are shopping for real world of goods in the environment so there\u2019s a few things but I certainly think the spirit of your things exactly right that it\u2019s,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"38:46 - 38:48\" data-start=\"00:38:45.661\" data-end=\"00:38:48.461\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">it\u2019s wildly over-hyped and not.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"38:49 - 39:02\" data-start=\"00:38:48.732\" data-end=\"00:39:01.639\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">A financial driver in the in the near future and I would even argue nobody can even agree on a definition of what the metaverse is a it sounds singular to fight this pack that it\u2019s it\u2019s quite poor rural.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"39:02 - 39:08\" data-start=\"00:39:02.120\" data-end=\"00:39:08.111\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">You know a lot of people think the metaverse has to be on web 3 which means it\u2019s open and,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"39:08 - 39:18\" data-start=\"00:39:08.309\" data-end=\"00:39:18.242\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Roblox is the example most people use the meta verse which is not on web three and you know a lot everybody thinks of the metaverse is VR and a lot of definitions of metaverse so Ike.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"39:19 - 39:26\" data-start=\"00:39:18.615\" data-end=\"00:39:26.276\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Do not require VR so I don\u2019t know I\u2019m cynical in the short term for sure so I\u2019ll give you a yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[39:27]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"39:27 - 39:29\" data-start=\"00:39:26.691\" data-end=\"00:39:29.028\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Okay.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[39:29]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"39:29 - 39:34\" data-start=\"00:39:29.071\" data-end=\"00:39:34.340\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">For live streaming goes mainstream in 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[39:36]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"39:36 - 39:38\" data-start=\"00:39:35.705\" data-end=\"00:39:38.234\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"39:38 - 39:47\" data-start=\"00:39:38.439\" data-end=\"00:39:46.671\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">here I was hoping to kind of weasel out with the mainstream so I will point to some successes so what not is a<\/span><br \/><span title=\"39:46 - 39:52\" data-start=\"00:39:46.491\" data-end=\"00:39:52.151\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">very collectible oriented Marketplace that is all live stream<\/span><br \/><span title=\"39:52 - 40:13\" data-start=\"00:39:52.001\" data-end=\"00:40:13.014\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">and I think they\u2019re gnd is north of a billion it may be closing in on two or three so that\u2019s pretty mainstream and then I\u2019ve read probably 20 articles in the last 10 days about Tick Tock e-commerce and every time I dig into it there\u2019s no data it sounds like it\u2019s just new so I was hoping to take credit for that in some way but<\/span><br \/><span title=\"40:13 - 40:18\" data-start=\"00:40:12.871\" data-end=\"00:40:17.678\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">don\u2019t think I can so I\u2019m going to probably score myself a no on this one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[40:18]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"40:18 - 40:24\" data-start=\"00:40:17.834\" data-end=\"00:40:24.336\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah so tricky like I think there\u2019s some use cases where a live streaming has become a thing and collectibles,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"40:24 - 40:38\" data-start=\"00:40:24.426\" data-end=\"00:40:37.946\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">is certainly one and it does I guess toy depend on what you meant by mainstream here\u2019s the thing the most generous definition of social commerce all social commerce in the US last year was about.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"40:39 - 40:46\" data-start=\"00:40:38.602\" data-end=\"00:40:46.491\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">60 billion in total sales and live streaming was likely less than 1% of that 60 billion so I.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[40:48]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"40:48 - 40:56\" data-start=\"00:40:47.723\" data-end=\"00:40:55.529\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Social commerce isn\u2019t that big a piece of Commerce and live streaming is in a very big piece of social commerce so I through that lens,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"40:56 - 41:02\" data-start=\"00:40:55.715\" data-end=\"00:41:01.598\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I feel like it\u2019s not a big thing and fun fact none of the Commerce on Tick Tock is wives.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"41:02 - 41:07\" data-start=\"00:41:01.935\" data-end=\"00:41:07.054\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">It\u2019s so people do I think confused short form video with live streaming,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"41:07 - 41:17\" data-start=\"00:41:07.205\" data-end=\"00:41:16.506\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um and so I tend to think live streaming is overhyped in the US it does work in China but what people don\u2019t understand is,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"41:17 - 41:22\" data-start=\"00:41:16.549\" data-end=\"00:41:21.518\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">that live streaming in China is,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"41:22 - 41:34\" data-start=\"00:41:21.554\" data-end=\"00:41:33.921\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">flash deal-sales like all of them come with a significant price offer and the reason that you you want to watch that stream when it\u2019s alive is because,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"41:34 - 41:43\" data-start=\"00:41:34.023\" data-end=\"00:41:43.469\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">that offer has scarcity attached to it and that offer is not going to be available two hours after the video plays so you have to watch it while it\u2019s being broadcast in order to get that deal,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"41:44 - 41:55\" data-start=\"00:41:43.698\" data-end=\"00:41:55.223\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um and you know none of the u.s. versions have really been that that deal oriented and without that deal why have live streaming when you could just record a short form video and,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"41:55 - 42:03\" data-start=\"00:41:55.355\" data-end=\"00:42:02.608\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">you know 100 times more people watch it over the subsequent two weeks or three weeks or whatever so so for all those reasons,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"42:03 - 42:08\" data-start=\"00:42:02.783\" data-end=\"00:42:08.238\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I feel like live streaming has been a little overhyped in the US and I agree with you why I probably didn\u2019t go mainstream this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[42:09]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"42:09 - 42:17\" data-start=\"00:42:08.792\" data-end=\"00:42:17.312\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah I don\u2019t know Tick Tock could be live stream it\u2019s kind of there\u2019s a stream.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[42:16]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"42:16 - 42:24\" data-start=\"00:42:16.213\" data-end=\"00:42:24.253\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">But it\u2019s yep are you watching it when the person talks I mean that\u2019s what it boils down to or is it recorded on a server and you watched it days later.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[42:23]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"42:23 - 42:27\" data-start=\"00:42:22.775\" data-end=\"00:42:26.680\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I don\u2019t Tick Tock I don\u2019t want I don\u2019t want my get brainwashed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[42:26]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"42:26 - 42:29\" data-start=\"00:42:26.380\" data-end=\"00:42:28.904\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah spoiler alert it\u2019s not last.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[42:29]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"42:29 - 42:32\" data-start=\"00:42:28.604\" data-end=\"00:42:32.269\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Okay.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[42:33]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"42:33 - 42:36\" data-start=\"00:42:33.267\" data-end=\"00:42:36.361\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">There is a live flavor on Tik-Tok but it\u2019s been quite small.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[42:37]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"42:37 - 42:40\" data-start=\"00:42:36.728\" data-end=\"00:42:39.612\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah I\u2019m two for two so I\u2019m Batman 50.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[42:40]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"42:40 - 42:44\" data-start=\"00:42:39.973\" data-end=\"00:42:43.752\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So you\u2019re to noes to yeses and then your final prediction,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"42:44 - 42:57\" data-start=\"00:42:43.849\" data-end=\"00:42:57.230\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">is that fabric which is a an e-commerce platform \/ Marketplace and and the CEO Fazal has been on a show a couple times and you were predicting that they would.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"42:58 - 43:03\" data-start=\"00:42:57.543\" data-end=\"00:43:02.596\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">What says fabric acquisition so that could mean either that they made a big acquisition or they got acquired.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[43:04]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"43:04 - 43:07\" data-start=\"00:43:03.829\" data-end=\"00:43:07.089\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah it was being acquired.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[43:07]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"43:07 - 43:08\" data-start=\"00:43:06.845\" data-end=\"00:43:08.023\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah that\u2019s what I said.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"43:09 - 43:14\" data-start=\"00:43:09.231\" data-end=\"00:43:14.134\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yes and I met him at the show and I can confirm that he\u2019s still at fabric.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[43:14]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"43:14 - 43:15\" data-start=\"00:43:14.002\" data-end=\"00:43:15.204\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">How are they doing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[43:15]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"43:15 - 43:18\" data-start=\"00:43:15.228\" data-end=\"00:43:18.046\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Really well well I think they feel like,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"43:18 - 43:33\" data-start=\"00:43:18.281\" data-end=\"00:43:32.558\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">there are well positioned and benefiting from some of these headless trends that we talked about and we had a good chat Faso as a longtime veteran of the industry and ran e-commerce at Staples and and some other places so he\u2019s always fun to talk to.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[43:33]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"43:33 - 43:47\" data-start=\"00:43:32.750\" data-end=\"00:43:47.226\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Here\u2019s a head-scratcher so facile likes to be called Faisal and then we have a guy at 50 that wants to be Fazal so so and you know you know how it is like I know it\u2019s I cannot get it right because I always<\/span><br \/><span title=\"43:47 - 43:52\" data-start=\"00:43:47.160\" data-end=\"00:43:51.823\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">it\u2019s 50\/50 coin toss but it always lands the wrong way so it\u2019s.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[43:52]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"43:52 - 44:03\" data-start=\"00:43:51.523\" data-end=\"00:44:02.891\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yes I\u2019m familiar with those dilemmas I also really struggle with fabric because his company is called Fabric and then there\u2019s another company called fabric that make micro fulfillment centers for grocery e-commerce.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"44:04 - 44:08\" data-start=\"00:44:03.859\" data-end=\"00:44:07.879\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">If you like you can have two companies with the same name in roughly the same space.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[44:08]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"44:08 - 44:10\" data-start=\"00:44:07.988\" data-end=\"00:44:10.102\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I give him.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"44:10 - 44:25\" data-start=\"00:44:10.463\" data-end=\"00:44:24.771\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Entrepreneur credit because he raised a boatload of money when valuations were super high which was smart if it\u2019s enough to get through to the from the peak through the valley to the next week so we\u2019ll see how it goes for.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[44:25]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"44:25 - 44:29\" data-start=\"00:44:25.089\" data-end=\"00:44:28.706\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019m knocking on wood you just can\u2019t hear it because I\u2019m such a good audio editor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[44:39]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"44:39 - 44:41\" data-start=\"00:44:38.658\" data-end=\"00:44:41.312\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">It\u2019s kind of your historical average right now I don\u2019t know I\u2019m.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[44:42]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"44:42 - 44:47\" data-start=\"00:44:41.578\" data-end=\"00:44:46.583\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Usually do better than half yeah it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[44:43]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"44:43 - 44:49\" data-start=\"00:44:42.668\" data-end=\"00:44:48.681\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">You\u2019ve done better actually I think that\u2019s a down year for you I think it\u2019s up here for me and a down here for you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[44:48]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"44:48 - 44:53\" data-start=\"00:44:48.459\" data-end=\"00:44:52.833\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Post covid it\u2019s hard to predict what the what\u2019s going on in the world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[44:53]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"44:53 - 45:03\" data-start=\"00:44:53.248\" data-end=\"00:45:03.487\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">And and as we have learned doing five years of these as hard as it is to predict something happens it\u2019s also timing is so tricky like very often we predicted something just in the wrong year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:04]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:04 - 45:11\" data-start=\"00:45:03.836\" data-end=\"00:45:10.746\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah I gave up on Amazon competes with the other shippers and that one still I still think it\u2019s coming.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:10]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:10 - 45:18\" data-start=\"00:45:10.446\" data-end=\"00:45:18.425\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Hundred percent there\u2019s a weird cognitive bias where like after you\u2019ve been wrong once or twice you hate to predict it again even though it probably would be smart the.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:18]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:18 - 45:21\" data-start=\"00:45:18.125\" data-end=\"00:45:20.565\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah yep.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:20]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:20 - 45:23\" data-start=\"00:45:20.277\" data-end=\"00:45:23.071\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019m with you all right well let\u2019s see if I can hang with you at all.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:21]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:21 - 45:25\" data-start=\"00:45:21.220\" data-end=\"00:45:24.597\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Alright let\u2019s see how you did yeah<\/span><br \/><span title=\"45:24 - 45:39\" data-start=\"00:45:24.453\" data-end=\"00:45:39.403\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">so your first prediction was you love web 3 you\u2019re going to mortgage your house put all your money in FTS and this token that you were super excited about that was going to the mood called FTX how\u2019d that work out for you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:40]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:40 - 45:44\" data-start=\"00:45:40.143\" data-end=\"00:45:43.549\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">It worked out better for Michael investor Tom Brady than it did for me.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:44]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:44 - 45:49\" data-start=\"00:45:43.616\" data-end=\"00:45:48.962\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Well I don\u2019t know he\u2019s in pretty rough rough time right now.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:49]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:49 - 45:50\" data-start=\"00:45:48.712\" data-end=\"00:45:50.472\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Neither of us are having our best years.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:50]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:50 - 45:54\" data-start=\"00:45:50.222\" data-end=\"00:45:53.645\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Butts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:53]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:53 - 45:58\" data-start=\"00:45:53.345\" data-end=\"00:45:58.326\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019ll be different reasons but I feel like you might have slightly misstated the spirit of my prediction.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[45:59]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"45:59 - 46:12\" data-start=\"00:45:58.506\" data-end=\"00:46:12.002\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Oh yeah I misread this so it says in FTS web 3 meta 15-minute delivery will be Duds less and ft dollar transactions will happen in 21 verses 22.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[46:12]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"46:12 - 46:21\" data-start=\"00:46:11.702\" data-end=\"00:46:21.064\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah so I was down I didn\u2019t think any of those things would be a big deal this year I guess one of those kind of overlap with you because you also didn\u2019t think instant delivery would be a big deal.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"46:22 - 46:35\" data-start=\"00:46:21.557\" data-end=\"00:46:35.173\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">And I don\u2019t think any of them were a big deal we\u2019ve covered them pretty exhausted lie but in order to make this a fair prediction I tried to put something that was more measurable and so I said in Ft transactions will be down in 2022 from 2021 and.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"46:36 - 46:41\" data-start=\"00:46:35.534\" data-end=\"00:46:41.068\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I got to be honest I looked it up before the show and so the good news is I\u2019m right.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"46:42 - 46:55\" data-start=\"00:46:41.970\" data-end=\"00:46:54.775\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">In Ft transactions gmv for an ftes and in the u.s. in 2021 was 25 billion 25 Point 1 billion and this year it was twenty four point seven billion so just barely down and I have to be honest,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"46:55 - 46:58\" data-start=\"00:46:55.004\" data-end=\"00:46:57.858\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I feel like I dodged a bullet because.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"46:58 - 47:07\" data-start=\"00:46:58.327\" data-end=\"00:47:07.244\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The way you buy an mft is with a cryptocurrency and the two main cryptocurrencies are each less than half their value.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"47:08 - 47:11\" data-start=\"00:47:07.881\" data-end=\"00:47:11.276\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">From the beginning of the year and so you would think like,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"47:12 - 47:26\" data-start=\"00:47:11.529\" data-end=\"00:47:25.704\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">in Ft transaction should be way down just because the value of the underlying currencies is way down but you know apparently like despite the fact that it\u2019s not a mainstream thing it grew enough that I was I almost ended up being.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"47:26 - 47:31\" data-start=\"00:47:26.005\" data-end=\"00:47:31.340\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Wrong on my on my number but that\u2019s a long-winded way of saying I feel like that\u2019s a yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[47:32]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"47:32 - 47:34\" data-start=\"00:47:32.416\" data-end=\"00:47:33.798\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Got it<\/span><br \/><span title=\"47:34 - 47:49\" data-start=\"00:47:33.618\" data-end=\"00:47:49.397\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">cool so we\u2019ll give you a yes prediction to here in North Carolina we call it Sheen you fancy City people call it she in your prediction was that they would do over 30 billion more than double the previous year so since we\u2019re a year<\/span><br \/><span title=\"47:49 - 47:57\" data-start=\"00:47:49.266\" data-end=\"00:47:56.758\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">off so you predicted in 2022 they would double a guest from 2020 1.15 billion<\/span><br \/><span title=\"47:57 - 48:00\" data-start=\"00:47:56.693\" data-end=\"00:48:00.358\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">you check this close and I do so I\u2019m gonna have you self-regulate this one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[48:00]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"48:00 - 48:10\" data-start=\"00:48:00.226\" data-end=\"00:48:09.840\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yes I nailed it like almost to the penny except that you know they\u2019re not a public company so we don\u2019t we don\u2019t really know the revenue but that<\/span><br \/><span title=\"48:10 - 48:16\" data-start=\"00:48:09.829\" data-end=\"00:48:16.252\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">estimates for for 20 21 where 15 billion so I predicted 30 billion in 2022<\/span><br \/><span title=\"48:16 - 48:29\" data-start=\"00:48:16.222\" data-end=\"00:48:29.045\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">they did a raise in March or may of May of 2022 and they disclosed during that raised that halfway less than halfway through the year they were already at 16 billion in Revenue,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"48:29 - 48:30\" data-start=\"00:48:29.208\" data-end=\"00:48:30.325\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">year to date,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"48:30 - 48:40\" data-start=\"00:48:30.380\" data-end=\"00:48:39.988\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so I was tracking really well and they\u2019re doing another raised right now as we speak and their side note taking a ginormous haircut on that race so the,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"48:40 - 48:46\" data-start=\"00:48:40.054\" data-end=\"00:48:45.865\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the May raise was that a hundred billion dollar valuation the razor trying to do right now is it 64 billion,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"48:46 - 48:55\" data-start=\"00:48:45.979\" data-end=\"00:48:55.479\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um but they disclosed in the in the deal docks for this raise that they finished the year at 30 billion which is,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"48:56 - 49:02\" data-start=\"00:48:55.642\" data-end=\"00:49:02.444\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">means that their sales significantly decelerated in the second half of the year but it means my prediction was exactly right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[49:04]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"49:04 - 49:07\" data-start=\"00:49:03.598\" data-end=\"00:49:07.371\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Very good congrats on that one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[49:06]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"49:06 - 49:10\" data-start=\"00:49:06.302\" data-end=\"00:49:10.159\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah and we could be out of time and not do the other other predictions if you want.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[49:10]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"49:10 - 49:14\" data-start=\"00:49:09.859\" data-end=\"00:49:13.915\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Well there\u2019s one country showing let\u2019s jump into this one<\/span><br \/><span title=\"49:14 - 49:27\" data-start=\"00:49:13.855\" data-end=\"00:49:26.937\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">so your third prediction was buy now pay later which we call B and P L is going to lose momentum it had 29 percent growth and 21 and you said it would slow to sub 15 and 22.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[49:28]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"49:28 - 49:39\" data-start=\"00:49:27.760\" data-end=\"00:49:38.534\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah and so it depends on exactly what math you\u2019re using but the actual growth rate in 2022 is 48.6% so is that is that more or less than 15.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[49:39]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"49:39 - 49:41\" data-start=\"00:49:39.039\" data-end=\"00:49:41.340\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I find that hard to believe.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[49:41]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"49:41 - 49:43\" data-start=\"00:49:41.431\" data-end=\"00:49:43.498\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I do too I was surprised.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[49:44]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"49:44 - 49:58\" data-start=\"00:49:43.690\" data-end=\"00:49:58.004\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah no I think I\u2019m gonna give you this one because you know the stocks on all these are down clar NE is on life support and I don\u2019t know I feel like these guys the the largest,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"49:58 - 50:14\" data-start=\"00:49:58.250\" data-end=\"00:50:14.420\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">kind of tie up was Peloton and buy now pay later and you know Peloton is had a really rough go of that in 22 and took all you know down the biggest buy now pay later operator with a firm so<\/span><br \/><span title=\"50:14 - 50:17\" data-start=\"00:50:14.258\" data-end=\"00:50:16.980\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I feel like he just was a yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[50:17]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"50:17 - 50:21\" data-start=\"00:50:16.999\" data-end=\"00:50:20.501\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Okay well I\u2019m not gonna argue with you I feel like they got a lot of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"50:21 - 50:33\" data-start=\"00:50:20.652\" data-end=\"00:50:32.580\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">negative momentum for a variety of reasons in in 2022 and right now we\u2019re seeing their valuations go way down because their default rates are starting to go up and what I\u2019m noticing is,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"50:33 - 50:36\" data-start=\"00:50:32.742\" data-end=\"00:50:35.710\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">they\u2019re all trying to Pivot out of buy now pay later into other,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"50:36 - 50:45\" data-start=\"00:50:35.927\" data-end=\"00:50:44.586\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">other retail services but like depending on how much of a stickler you might be like they still apparently sold a lot of stuff on buy now pay later last.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"50:45 - 50:47\" data-start=\"00:50:44.923\" data-end=\"00:50:47.404\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019ll take the yes or at least I\u2019ll take a half a yes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[50:48]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"50:48 - 50:53\" data-start=\"00:50:47.711\" data-end=\"00:50:53.029\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I\u2019ll give you the win but I\u2019ll scold you for bad predicting like never get specific with percentages.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[50:53]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"50:53 - 51:04\" data-start=\"00:50:52.729\" data-end=\"00:51:04.320\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I know I know well I was I feel like so many people make these like lame predictions that I was trying to be super specific but I agree that was that was dumb alright thanks man you should great all my stuff.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[51:02]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"51:02 - 51:15\" data-start=\"00:51:02.235\" data-end=\"00:51:14.866\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Now this next one is kind of a Whopper so this is this is kind of my favorite so you predicted Amazon would open 100 grocery stores how\u2019s that one going.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[51:15]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"51:15 - 51:20\" data-start=\"00:51:14.584\" data-end=\"00:51:20.129\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">It\u2019s great they opened one store and that store opened 365 times.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"51:23 - 51:25\" data-start=\"00:51:22.786\" data-end=\"00:51:24.967\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">But if you\u2019re doing store count.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"51:25 - 51:34\" data-start=\"00:51:25.262\" data-end=\"00:51:34.058\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I missed it pretty substantially that I think they have 44 stores in the US and 17 stores in the UK so well short of 100,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"51:34 - 51:41\" data-start=\"00:51:34.173\" data-end=\"00:51:41.101\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">the end and I\u2019m way less optimistic that they\u2019re going to invest in that that concept,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"51:41 - 51:54\" data-start=\"00:51:41.204\" data-end=\"00:51:53.912\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">now than I was a year ago when I made this prediction so that\u2019s definitely a no the only fun fact is compared to any other retail Concept in Amazon this one did pretty well because they literally closed every other one,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"51:54 - 51:59\" data-start=\"00:51:53.991\" data-end=\"00:51:58.918\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and they\u2019re they\u2019re laying off a ton of the retail people like right now as we speak unfortunately so.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"52:00 - 52:06\" data-start=\"00:51:59.736\" data-end=\"00:52:06.327\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So I think that\u2019s a clear no it does not seem like the immediate future for Amazon is in brick and mortar.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[52:07]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"52:07 - 52:11\" data-start=\"00:52:06.640\" data-end=\"00:52:10.672\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah yeah they\u2019ve really pulled in the horns on that one.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[52:11]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"52:11 - 52:25\" data-start=\"00:52:10.913\" data-end=\"00:52:24.685\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Fun fact then this means nothing no one should interpret this but Amazon close their bookstores in 2022 and Barnes and Noble was opening new book store some joint too so I think there was a time when we would have said that could never happen.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[52:25]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"52:25 - 52:28\" data-start=\"00:52:25.124\" data-end=\"00:52:28.068\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah one of these is not going to be going well<\/span><br \/><span title=\"52:28 - 52:40\" data-start=\"00:52:27.972\" data-end=\"00:52:40.447\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">okay your last prediction was that last you there would be a last mile delivery acquisition of some kind you mentioned instacart v0x delivery and ship iam.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[52:41]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"52:41 - 52:44\" data-start=\"00:52:41.367\" data-end=\"00:52:44.305\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah and none of them were acquiring so I think,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"52:45 - 52:59\" data-start=\"00:52:44.509\" data-end=\"00:52:58.540\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I miss this I mean if you go deep cut enough I found there\u2019s a couple like four million dollar transactions that happen but none of the name ones did anything there they did some fundraising the the premise behind this,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"52:59 - 53:01\" data-start=\"00:52:58.697\" data-end=\"00:53:01.112\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">this prediction last year was,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"53:01 - 53:09\" data-start=\"00:53:01.178\" data-end=\"00:53:09.014\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">that one of the ways that a lot of e-commerce sites deliver packages is not exclusively through FedEx UPS in u.s. post office,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"53:09 - 53:22\" data-start=\"00:53:09.026\" data-end=\"00:53:21.819\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">that increasingly they\u2019re using a Federation of a bunch of small last-mile companies and that often there\u2019s a middle man that\u2019s helping aggregate all those small a smile companies that make it easier to ship with them,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"53:22 - 53:26\" data-start=\"00:53:21.838\" data-end=\"00:53:26.416\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and so my thought was that\u2019s becoming a more important.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[53:27]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"53:27 - 53:39\" data-start=\"00:53:26.723\" data-end=\"00:53:39.444\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Part of the e-commerce echo system that somebody\u2019s going to try to make a big play there and kind of roll some of them up or acquire some of them and and you know kind of add them together and make something more valuable,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"53:40 - 53:44\" data-start=\"00:53:39.624\" data-end=\"00:53:43.722\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um and it didn\u2019t happen last year and what\u2019s interesting is,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"53:44 - 53:50\" data-start=\"00:53:43.879\" data-end=\"00:53:50.482\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Fedex rates and UPS rates are going way up this year like one of the conversations I had with a lot of e-commerce sites,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"53:51 - 53:56\" data-start=\"00:53:50.603\" data-end=\"00:53:55.861\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">last year was that their last mile costs are going up at an untenable rate so this.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"53:56 - 54:01\" data-start=\"00:53:56.125\" data-end=\"00:54:01.377\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">This methodology is becoming more important and more popular so this is a classic example,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"54:02 - 54:12\" data-start=\"00:54:01.594\" data-end=\"00:54:11.538\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">if I were smart I should probably take this this prediction and double down again on it for this year but spoiler alert I did not do that I just took the no and I moved on.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[54:12]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"54:12 - 54:22\" data-start=\"00:54:12.230\" data-end=\"00:54:21.591\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">All right so out of your five you had sixty percent so you had three correct and to wrong so you you win the year so congratulations<\/span><br \/><span title=\"54:21 - 54:30\" data-start=\"00:54:21.388\" data-end=\"00:54:29.517\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">you get the virtual trophy you get an mft,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"54:30 - 54:37\" data-start=\"00:54:29.566\" data-end=\"00:54:37.407\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">ironically you get the nft the Jason Scott exclusive one of one in Ft.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[54:38]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"54:38 - 54:50\" data-start=\"00:54:37.564\" data-end=\"00:54:50.110\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019m super excited about that for all our listeners I only accept in ft\u2019s that are minted on proof of stake blockchains I don\u2019t accept proof-of-work blockchains because they\u2019re an ecologically.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[54:51]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"54:51 - 55:02\" data-start=\"00:54:50.676\" data-end=\"00:55:02.279\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">So it\u2019s Solana for you all right I know we\u2019re Up Against Time the shows always go a little long so I\u2019m going to kind of lightning round my predictions for 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[55:15]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"55:15 - 55:23\" data-start=\"00:55:15.223\" data-end=\"00:55:23.154\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">All right so number one Amazon uses the this 2022,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"55:23 - 55:30\" data-start=\"00:55:23.269\" data-end=\"00:55:29.824\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">perceived setback that I think\u2019s way overblown you kind of mentioned it at the top and,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"55:30 - 55:38\" data-start=\"00:55:29.849\" data-end=\"00:55:38.321\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I think what\u2019s going to happen is sure e-commerce is going to revert to the mean but under the hood I feel like they\u2019re going to be taking share at a really aggressive clip,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"55:38 - 55:44\" data-start=\"00:55:38.484\" data-end=\"00:55:43.543\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">the reason to borrow on shipping the selection of things that are near you is going up,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"55:44 - 55:56\" data-start=\"00:55:43.640\" data-end=\"00:55:56.216\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I have through my day job I can see that they are making a lot of good changes with last mile delivery they\u2019re still putting a lot of effort into that and improving it and making it better all the time so<\/span><br \/><span title=\"55:56 - 56:01\" data-start=\"00:55:56.145\" data-end=\"00:56:01.396\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">so basically I think they\u2019re going to you know if I have to,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"56:02 - 56:08\" data-start=\"00:56:01.565\" data-end=\"00:56:08.282\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">get a little more specific I think they\u2019re going to take a fair amount of share in 2023 from the rest of e-commerce so they already are like<\/span><br \/><span title=\"56:08 - 56:18\" data-start=\"00:56:08.277\" data-end=\"00:56:17.608\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">more than half of e-commerce and I think they grab a chunk so that\u2019s kind of how I would measure this is what percentage of e-commerce Amazon has and I think they\u2019re going to take,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"56:18 - 56:19\" data-start=\"00:56:17.621\" data-end=\"00:56:18.618\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">pretty good chunk.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[56:19]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"56:19 - 56:20\" data-start=\"00:56:18.895\" data-end=\"00:56:20.072\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I like it cool.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[56:20]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"56:20 - 56:32\" data-start=\"00:56:20.373\" data-end=\"00:56:32.229\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">That\u2019s my first one number two is I think Shopify is going to be acquired you know so I think they\u2019re doing this headless thing the first party piece hurts them and a lot of<\/span><br \/><span title=\"56:32 - 56:44\" data-start=\"00:56:32.199\" data-end=\"00:56:44.108\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">you know Facebook so that\u2019s a natural Binding Together they\u2019re there we\u2019re going to talk about it in a future show but they\u2019re kind of they have never really executed on this idea of a Marketplace<\/span><br \/><span title=\"56:44 - 56:51\" data-start=\"00:56:44.025\" data-end=\"00:56:51.139\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">they\u2019ve had a lot of weird cultural things where they talked about getting rid of meanings and then like their hole.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"56:52 - 57:06\" data-start=\"00:56:51.506\" data-end=\"00:57:06.462\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Admin interface was down for days it feels like something\u2019s going on they\u2019ve had a lot of people a lot of turnover they\u2019ve gone totally virtual I\u2019m not a fan of that I think it\u2019s hard to be super Innovative and have to whatever the world changes have to hop on a DSM calls to figure out<\/span><br \/><span title=\"57:06 - 57:09\" data-start=\"00:57:06.288\" data-end=\"00:57:09.160\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">what everyone\u2019s thinking so I think<\/span><br \/><span title=\"57:09 - 57:24\" data-start=\"00:57:09.077\" data-end=\"00:57:23.582\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I think they\u2019re they definitely we\u2019ve hit Peak Shopify probably you know in 2021 and this is when it starts to be time maybe some people say hey this wouldn\u2019t be a bad time to to tap out here,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"57:24 - 57:24\" data-start=\"00:57:23.661\" data-end=\"00:57:24.225\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">we\u2019ll see.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[57:24]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"57:24 - 57:39\" data-start=\"00:57:24.304\" data-end=\"00:57:38.689\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Wow that\u2019s awesome one just quick curiosity one problem is the valuation like while it\u2019s gone down a lot is still pretty high like so the pool of acquirers is pretty small or are you thinking the valuations going to keep going down low enough that there\u2019s.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"57:39 - 57:41\" data-start=\"00:57:39.134\" data-end=\"00:57:40.960\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">That more people might take a shot at it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[57:42]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"57:42 - 57:48\" data-start=\"00:57:42.012\" data-end=\"00:57:48.321\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah I think I think even at this valuation there\u2019s probably three or four acquirers and I think the valuation could go down further.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[57:48]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"57:48 - 57:51\" data-start=\"00:57:48.208\" data-end=\"00:57:51.458\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">All right cool I like I love the big bold ones.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[57:51]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"57:51 - 58:06\" data-start=\"00:57:51.393\" data-end=\"00:58:06.264\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah you\u2019re going to hate this next one so this one is where everyone thinks AI is hype I\u2019m thinking there\u2019s going to be a big innovation we don\u2019t see it from these new AI engines specifically right now the state of the artist G PT 3,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"58:06 - 58:17\" data-start=\"00:58:06.271\" data-end=\"00:58:16.702\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I know people have seen GPT for and they all can\u2019t express enough how game-changing it\u2019s going to be so I think there\u2019s going to be something in the e-commerce world not<\/span><br \/><span title=\"58:17 - 58:26\" data-start=\"00:58:16.649\" data-end=\"00:58:26.185\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">this is like so it has to be kind of a big idea so I can\u2019t be just like a chatbot or like another recommendation engine but I think there\u2019s gonna be something kind of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"58:26 - 58:28\" data-start=\"00:58:26.215\" data-end=\"00:58:28.083\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">big here that\u2019s hard,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"58:28 - 58:39\" data-start=\"00:58:28.180\" data-end=\"00:58:39.368\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">it\u2019s so different that it could be hard to I can\u2019t tell what it\u2019s going to be but I think something big is going to happen here that kind of makes our heads explode so that\u2019s my prediction that we actually see a really,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"58:40 - 58:45\" data-start=\"00:58:39.513\" data-end=\"00:58:45.155\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">disruptive piece of technology kind of AI that impacts the e-commerce world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[58:47]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"58:47 - 58:55\" data-start=\"00:58:46.580\" data-end=\"00:58:55.166\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Okay I like it I don\u2019t have a other than it\u2019s going to be higher so you hard to measure but I guess we\u2019ll know it when we see it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[58:56]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"58:56 - 58:56\" data-start=\"00:58:55.503\" data-end=\"00:58:56.110\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"58:57 - 59:06\" data-start=\"00:58:56.501\" data-end=\"00:59:06.055\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah and then since we\u2019ve got great each other gives you a lot of fodder to push against ich number for e-commerce is going to accelerate back so I think<\/span><br \/><span title=\"59:06 - 59:09\" data-start=\"00:59:05.983\" data-end=\"00:59:09.077\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">and the first half will have these recessionary wins<\/span><br \/><span title=\"59:09 - 59:22\" data-start=\"00:59:09.054\" data-end=\"00:59:22.111\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I\u2019m a eternal optimist you\u2019re typically on the pessimist I think we\u2019ll have a soft Landing maybe we don\u2019t have much of a recession and then in the back half will be kind of through this post covid Hayes hopefully I think<\/span><br \/><span title=\"59:22 - 59:31\" data-start=\"00:59:22.039\" data-end=\"00:59:30.734\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">part of this prediction in Furs that inflation will will kind of get under control and we\u2019ll see e-commerce<\/span><br \/><span title=\"59:31 - 59:38\" data-start=\"00:59:30.608\" data-end=\"00:59:37.819\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">go back to kind of its average growth rate which has been historically 15 percentage so that\u2019s my prediction there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[59:38]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"59:38 - 59:50\" data-start=\"00:59:38.396\" data-end=\"00:59:50.143\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Okay yeah I think they\u2019re a bunch of people that are like kind of e-commerce growth is tapped out which is I think they\u2019re wildly wrong so I certainly take the bullish side of that one for you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[59:50]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"59:50 - 1:00:03\" data-start=\"00:59:50.366\" data-end=\"01:00:02.798\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah and then this one I have to give props to my daughter I was she was looking over my shoulder and I was doing these and she said I have one and I said you don\u2019t understand the stakes I\u2019ve got to be Jason because I did bad this year and she said<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:00:03 - 1:00:09\" data-start=\"01:00:02.703\" data-end=\"01:00:08.639\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I don\u2019t care I\u2019m 16 and I spend a lot of time at Sephora and Ulta this is her speaking not me<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:00:09 - 1:00:17\" data-start=\"01:00:08.622\" data-end=\"01:00:17.310\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I also do because I\u2019m with her but now she can drive so I\u2019m spending less time there and I think they\u2019re going to come out with some kind of a subscription model so,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:00:17 - 1:00:22\" data-start=\"01:00:17.383\" data-end=\"01:00:21.565\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">there you go I don\u2019t know any specifics but that is her hot take.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:00:21]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:00:21 - 1:00:30\" data-start=\"01:00:21.271\" data-end=\"01:00:29.965\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Okay and and by that you don\u2019t mean they\u2019re going to transition their whole business to a subscription you mean they\u2019re going to add some kind of subscription offering okay.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:00:28]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:00:28 - 1:00:38\" data-start=\"01:00:28.331\" data-end=\"01:00:37.711\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah yeah and you know I was thinking you know what was that one there was a box that was Beauty used Beauty Box every over the name of that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:00:38]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:00:38 - 1:00:39\" data-start=\"01:00:38.030\" data-end=\"01:00:39.285\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:00:39]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:00:39 - 1:00:43\" data-start=\"01:00:39.046\" data-end=\"01:00:43.450\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I don\u2019t think I made it yeah and I said you mean like that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:00:43]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:00:43 - 1:00:44\" data-start=\"01:00:43.150\" data-end=\"01:00:44.447\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Box is that what.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:00:44]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:00:44 - 1:00:50\" data-start=\"01:00:44.249\" data-end=\"01:00:50.396\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Birchbox well very good man yeah old school way to pull that one out<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:00:50 - 1:01:04\" data-start=\"01:00:50.258\" data-end=\"01:01:03.616\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">and she said no it\u2019ll be more like I can go to the store and they\u2019ll I can I can pick up kind of like they\u2019ll pull stuff for me that comes in and I could just go to the store and it\u2019ll be already there for you.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:01:04 - 1:01:05\" data-start=\"01:01:04.452\" data-end=\"01:01:05.136\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">To understand.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:01:05]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:01:05 - 1:01:15\" data-start=\"01:01:05.155\" data-end=\"01:01:15.430\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Clarifying question because far be it for me like I want to learn to like and your daughter certainly have the future behavior that neither of us understand yet.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:01:16 - 1:01:22\" data-start=\"01:01:16.350\" data-end=\"01:01:22.076\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Is she thinking like that in the same way that Birchbox was kind of a discovery thing she\u2019s thinking this is some kind of.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:01:23 - 1:01:35\" data-start=\"01:01:22.629\" data-end=\"01:01:34.923\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Discovery thing of new products because I actually think Sephora already has a like you know if you use this amount of moisturizer will automatically send you a new thing a moisturizer every three months.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:01:35]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:01:35 - 1:01:43\" data-start=\"01:01:34.726\" data-end=\"01:01:42.705\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">This was tied more to influence your site so I think there\u2019s these influencers and they each have kind of staked out you know there<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:01:43 - 1:01:52\" data-start=\"01:01:42.634\" data-end=\"01:01:52.416\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">each store has a set of influencers and I think she\u2019s starting to see them come out with seasonal products kind of like a yeah and I think that it\u2019ll be a subscription to that kind of thing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:01:52]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:01:52 - 1:01:55\" data-start=\"01:01:52.386\" data-end=\"01:01:55.468\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">That makes total sense that would be new and I.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:01:57 - 1:02:08\" data-start=\"01:01:56.575\" data-end=\"01:02:08.496\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Could seem cool a lot of the traditional subscriptions lately have not done as well as some of us might have expected but so yeah this this will be interesting kind of like the next gen of those Discovery boxes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:02:09]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:02:09 - 1:02:21\" data-start=\"01:02:08.641\" data-end=\"01:02:20.809\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">One thing I did notice in my last six I think this is for they have a end cap that says inspired by Tick-Tock and it\u2019s always empty.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:02:21 - 1:02:29\" data-start=\"01:02:21.368\" data-end=\"01:02:28.512\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">And as estimate I was like are they she\u2019s like oh every time they put something there so I was up and I was like wow that\u2019s pretty amazing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:02:28]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:02:28 - 1:02:30\" data-start=\"01:02:28.212\" data-end=\"01:02:30.141\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The Tik Tok made me buy it in cap.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[1:02:38]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:02:38 - 1:02:48\" data-start=\"01:02:37.562\" data-end=\"01:02:47.765\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I\u2019m 100% with you social commerce is a thing and it\u2019s mostly not about people ordering stuff on Tick Tock it\u2019s about people discovering stuff on Tick Tock and then buying it from Sephora.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:02:47]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:02:47 - 1:02:51\" data-start=\"01:02:47.471\" data-end=\"01:02:50.908\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I know I was trying to get some partial credit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:02:51]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:02:51 - 1:02:54\" data-start=\"01:02:50.608\" data-end=\"01:02:53.630\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah I like it though all right I think those are great.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:02:54]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:02:54 - 1:03:04\" data-start=\"01:02:54.081\" data-end=\"01:03:03.725\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">And then in the spirit of my third prediction which was a I will change the world I actually asked chatgpt to make a prediction and it said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"2\">Chatgpt:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:03:04]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:03:04 - 1:03:13\" data-start=\"01:03:03.906\" data-end=\"01:03:13.436\" data-spk=\"2\" data-label=\"ChatGPT\">Based on Trends and current developments in e-commerce it is likely that we will see continued growth and expansion in the industry with an emphasis on mobile Commerce.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:03:14 - 1:03:22\" data-start=\"01:03:14.248\" data-end=\"01:03:21.765\" data-spk=\"2\" data-label=\"ChatGPT\">Personalized shopping experiences and increased use of Technologies such as artificial intelligence and virtual reality.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:03:23 - 1:03:30\" data-start=\"01:03:22.540\" data-end=\"01:03:29.715\" data-spk=\"2\" data-label=\"ChatGPT\">Additionally there may be an increased focus on issues such as sustainability and social responsibility in e-commerce.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:03:30]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:03:30 - 1:03:38\" data-start=\"01:03:29.739\" data-end=\"01:03:38.127\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">And when it said that I was thought I thought you were punking me I thought you were on the other side of the chat because I was like that\u2019s exactly what someone at publicist would say.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:03:39 - 1:03:50\" data-start=\"01:03:38.909\" data-end=\"01:03:50.452\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Someone with a really long title like eight words that\u2019s the exact kind of synergistic linguistic word salad that they would they would throw out.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:03:52]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:03:52 - 1:03:58\" data-start=\"01:03:52.075\" data-end=\"01:03:57.897\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yeah there\u2019s nothing super tangible in there but it sounds really good That\u2019s a classic chatgpt answer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:03:58]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:03:58 - 1:04:07\" data-start=\"01:03:58.210\" data-end=\"01:04:07.181\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">So one way my my one prediction could come true as if you\u2019re replaced by an AI so I\u2019ll just I\u2019m not that\u2019s not a prediction is just one way I could cheat my prediction.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:04:08]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:04:08 - 1:04:19\" data-start=\"01:04:07.873\" data-end=\"01:04:18.947\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So fun fact is some people know I have a Forbes column and my my most recent Forbes article was about the demise of e-commerce being overhyped.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:04:20 - 1:04:31\" data-start=\"01:04:19.771\" data-end=\"01:04:31.097\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Often I read those articles from scratch myself sometimes I write an outline or a first draft and I send it to a pupusas copywriter and they send me back a first draft and then I edit it and.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:04:31 - 1:04:40\" data-start=\"01:04:31.458\" data-end=\"01:04:39.829\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">When I do that I have to do a lot of work because of the copywriters are really talented writers and use proper English and I\u2019m really.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:04:40 - 1:04:43\" data-start=\"01:04:40.274\" data-end=\"01:04:43.386\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Less sophisticated so to put it in my.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:04:44 - 1:04:59\" data-start=\"01:04:43.945\" data-end=\"01:04:58.715\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">In my voice I have to change it a lot so this most recent Forbes article I had chatgpt writer and I said write a Forbes article in the voice of Jason Goldberg that has this title and makes these Five Points.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:04:59 - 1:05:09\" data-start=\"01:04:58.998\" data-end=\"01:05:08.870\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Um and so it didn\u2019t really do any research for me it didn\u2019t like pick any of the answers because I gave it all the answers in my prompt and the data I wanted to support it.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:05:10 - 1:05:25\" data-start=\"01:05:10.025\" data-end=\"01:05:24.794\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">It was kind of like I handed it my outline and had it right the first draft in my voice and it was way closer to exactly what I wanted then the ones I get from the copywriter so I probably will never write a first draft from scratch again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:05:25]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:05:25 - 1:05:28\" data-start=\"01:05:25.390\" data-end=\"01:05:27.781\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Does that mean that copywriters going to lose their job.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:05:28]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:05:28 - 1:05:38\" data-start=\"01:05:28.052\" data-end=\"01:05:37.882\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">No she\u2019s gonna move to higher value stuff from now the actual smart people to do some good with proper English.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:05:36]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:05:36 - 1:05:43\" data-start=\"01:05:36.362\" data-end=\"01:05:42.647\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Unrelated we going to have a new new podcast host.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:05:42]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:05:42 - 1:05:50\" data-start=\"01:05:42.347\" data-end=\"01:05:50.213\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The yeah that we\u2019re way over on time but like the the really scary one is these awesome avatars that can make,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:05:50 - 1:05:57\" data-start=\"01:05:50.327\" data-end=\"01:05:57.454\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I can learn your voice and then sound perfectly like your voice are now out in the wild from several companies including Adobe and,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:05:58 - 1:06:06\" data-start=\"01:05:57.628\" data-end=\"01:06:06.167\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and I conveniently have 3:00 of my own voice and your voice on wreck so I think I can make the two of us say anything we.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:06:07]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:06:07 - 1:06:08\" data-start=\"01:06:06.744\" data-end=\"01:06:08.402\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yep I think again.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:06:09]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:06:09 - 1:06:18\" data-start=\"01:06:08.697\" data-end=\"01:06:18.173\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Awesome all right well those all seem like good predictions that seems like you have a very viable chance of coming back and getting your nft trophy back for me,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:06:18 - 1:06:20\" data-start=\"01:06:18.318\" data-end=\"01:06:20.222\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I will whip through mine,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:06:20 - 1:06:31\" data-start=\"01:06:20.325\" data-end=\"01:06:31.303\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I suffered greatly because we are recording this late I wrote my predictions of the beginning of the year and I said Party City and Bed Bath and Beyond are going to declare bankruptcy,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:06:31 - 1:06:39\" data-start=\"01:06:31.399\" data-end=\"01:06:39.265\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and unfortunately pretty soon declared bankruptcy yesterday in Bed Bath and Beyond hasn\u2019t cleared yet but they\u2019ve announced publicly that there,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:06:40 - 1:06:52\" data-start=\"01:06:39.518\" data-end=\"01:06:51.704\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">they\u2019re likely to so I can\u2019t really use that prediction but I\u2019m going to say that there are going to be at least two other retail bankruptcies besides Party City in the in the space this year,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:06:52 - 1:07:01\" data-start=\"01:06:51.878\" data-end=\"01:07:01.456\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um you know I think Bed Bath and Beyond is likely to declare bankruptcy but I also think we might see some of the kind of model-based apparel retailers or.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:07:02 - 1:07:11\" data-start=\"01:07:01.811\" data-end=\"01:07:11.215\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">There\u2019s a few other other retards I have my eye on so I do think we\u2019re going to see a little bit of attrition in the kind of traditional brick-and-mortar retailers.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:07:13 - 1:07:16\" data-start=\"01:07:13.174\" data-end=\"01:07:15.806\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Um so I\u2019m starting off with a positive note.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:07:16]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:07:16 - 1:07:22\" data-start=\"01:07:16.347\" data-end=\"01:07:21.605\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">So retailers go out of business you win all right.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:07:20]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:07:20 - 1:07:22\" data-start=\"01:07:20.031\" data-end=\"01:07:22.140\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Yes that\u2019s I\u2019m yes I\u2019m betting on.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:07:23 - 1:07:33\" data-start=\"01:07:22.561\" data-end=\"01:07:32.782\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">The second one I\u2019m in a way doubling down on my buy now pay later I wasn\u2019t sure you were going to give me credit for last year so.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:07:34 - 1:07:43\" data-start=\"01:07:33.551\" data-end=\"01:07:42.865\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">If they were hurt and swelling down last year I think at least one of them has to go away this year so like I\u2019m not sure anybody goes away via a.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:07:44 - 1:07:53\" data-start=\"01:07:43.514\" data-end=\"01:07:53.453\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">An actual bankruptcy but I could see a roll up or merger or acquisition of some of these guys so I\u2019m saying at least one of the top four,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:07:54 - 1:08:01\" data-start=\"01:07:53.579\" data-end=\"01:08:01.024\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Kleine a firm after pay or says they\u2019ll don\u2019t don\u2019t exist as a standalone entity at the end of 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:08:02]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:08:02 - 1:08:07\" data-start=\"01:08:02.371\" data-end=\"01:08:07.045\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">I think that\u2019s pretty pretty safe.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:08:07]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:08:07 - 1:08:13\" data-start=\"01:08:06.745\" data-end=\"01:08:12.796\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">All right in full disclosure I had a really unsafe prediction there that I changed to this.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:08:13 - 1:08:25\" data-start=\"01:08:13.397\" data-end=\"01:08:24.586\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">My third prediction may be opposite of you you think shopify\u2019s gonna struggle I\u2019m I don\u2019t necessarily disagree with that it\u2019s interesting to think they might have peaked last year,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:08:25 - 1:08:34\" data-start=\"01:08:24.652\" data-end=\"01:08:33.575\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um but a offering that they haven\u2019t made that they\u2019re crazy to not make and I am pretty I\u2019ll be shocked if I don\u2019t see this year is.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:08:34 - 1:08:36\" data-start=\"01:08:34.027\" data-end=\"01:08:36.111\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">We see some kind of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:08:36 - 1:08:45\" data-start=\"01:08:36.304\" data-end=\"01:08:45.257\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">aggregated retail media network from Shopify so you\u2019re one of the million stores on Shopify you can opt into showing ads,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:08:45 - 1:08:54\" data-start=\"01:08:45.306\" data-end=\"01:08:54.102\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">on your store and advertisers instead of having to buy ads from Individual stores that would all be too small and scale to be meaningful,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:08:54 - 1:09:01\" data-start=\"01:08:54.319\" data-end=\"01:09:00.706\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">can buy ads from a aggregated Shopify interface that then.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:09:01 - 1:09:09\" data-start=\"01:09:01.151\" data-end=\"01:09:09.377\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Get distributed to all those sites like very similar to like Google AdWords but in the Shopify echo system.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:09:10 - 1:09:13\" data-start=\"01:09:09.678\" data-end=\"01:09:12.947\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Every other retailers kind of monetizing their traffic,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:09:13 - 1:09:26\" data-start=\"01:09:13.061\" data-end=\"01:09:25.993\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">we\u2019ve seen some other products now we\u2019re shopify\u2019s aggregating stores so there\u2019s that shop app there\u2019s now an aggregated search in that so I just think it\u2019s a no-brainer that Shopify to try to defend themselves from,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:09:26 - 1:09:33\" data-start=\"01:09:26.239\" data-end=\"01:09:32.663\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">from Amazon that\u2019s making a fortune on retail media networks is going to try to launch an ad product in 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:09:33]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:09:33 - 1:09:44\" data-start=\"01:09:33.456\" data-end=\"01:09:44.266\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah we have a guest coming up a little bit of a tease what we call in the podcast Biz at ease we have a really interesting guest that\u2019s going to talk about an R MN.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:09:45]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:09:45 - 1:10:00\" data-start=\"01:09:45.276\" data-end=\"01:09:59.818\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I love it will conveniently I feel like they come up somewhat in my next prediction as well which I think in in aggregate metal Google and Tick-Tock lose advertising Revenue in 2023.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:10:00 - 1:10:04\" data-start=\"01:10:00.263\" data-end=\"01:10:04.493\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Um so we\u2019ve talked a lot about the the negative,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:10:05 - 1:10:13\" data-start=\"01:10:04.661\" data-end=\"01:10:12.803\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">mobile privacy impacts on meta and Google Tick-Tock has actually been the most robust fastest growing,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:10:13 - 1:10:20\" data-start=\"01:10:13.008\" data-end=\"01:10:20.218\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">platform of the of the traditional social media networks and 2022,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:10:20 - 1:10:30\" data-start=\"01:10:20.303\" data-end=\"01:10:30.458\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">but I actually think they\u2019re going to run into more and more concerns about the Chinese ownership and these like partial bands and all that sort of notes and there\u2019s a lot of new,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:10:31 - 1:10:38\" data-start=\"01:10:30.596\" data-end=\"01:10:38.498\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">opportunities for advertisers to spend their money so I think these retail media networks are starting to take real dollars Microsoft launched a retail media Network,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:10:39 - 1:10:49\" data-start=\"01:10:38.600\" data-end=\"01:10:49.236\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">at NRF last week and there are new social media networks that you may be familiar with through your kids but that most adults working our industry have never heard of,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:10:49 - 1:10:56\" data-start=\"01:10:49.387\" data-end=\"01:10:56.110\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">that are now getting quite large and out and growing more rapidly than the tick-tocks of the world and that\u2019s things like be real,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:10:56 - 1:11:06\" data-start=\"01:10:56.225\" data-end=\"01:11:06.176\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">um I think by the time at all Nets out I think the big three met a Google and Tik-Tok have less less share of the add digital ad space,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:11:06 - 1:11:08\" data-start=\"01:11:06.290\" data-end=\"01:11:07.678\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">next year than they did this.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:11:08]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:11:08 - 1:11:11\" data-start=\"01:11:08.231\" data-end=\"01:11:10.917\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Kumar you big on be real.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:11:11]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:11:11 - 1:11:18\" data-start=\"01:11:10.623\" data-end=\"01:11:17.677\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I am not because it wouldn\u2019t be real for a over-aged dude to be on be real.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:11:18]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:11:18 - 1:11:20\" data-start=\"01:11:18.272\" data-end=\"01:11:20.001\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Okay good so you are.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:11:21]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:11:21 - 1:11:22\" data-start=\"01:11:20.502\" data-end=\"01:11:21.547\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Be kind of creepy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:11:21]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:11:21 - 1:11:22\" data-start=\"01:11:21.363\" data-end=\"01:11:22.430\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">By not being on beer.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:11:22]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:11:22 - 1:11:30\" data-start=\"01:11:22.130\" data-end=\"01:11:30.194\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Exactly the way for me to be realized to stay far away from it but I like to watch age appropriate people that are using it,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:11:30 - 1:11:44\" data-start=\"01:11:30.435\" data-end=\"01:11:43.516\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and then my fifth prediction there\u2019s a little salt in the Scott was wrong about live streaming is that live stream e-commerce still won\u2019t be meaningful in 2023.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:11:44 - 1:11:57\" data-start=\"01:11:44.250\" data-end=\"01:11:56.610\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">So and I\u2019ll make it like slightly more measurable going back to my that stupid way to predict in the future comment from earlier so last evening still isn\u2019t going to be 5% of social commerce Revenue next year.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:11:57 - 1:12:01\" data-start=\"01:11:57.109\" data-end=\"01:12:01.417\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">For all the reasons already talked about like it\u2019s an itch it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><small>[1:12:02]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:12:02 - 1:12:17\" data-start=\"01:12:02.301\" data-end=\"01:12:16.590\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">There\u2019s a great use case which is 121 Commerce as sales people helping people in their home that\u2019s a live streaming I think there\u2019s Collectibles and Flash sales and you know some of QVC is live streaming stuff like that but there\u2019s not going to be enough to really move the needle,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:12:17 - 1:12:25\" data-start=\"01:12:16.674\" data-end=\"01:12:24.774\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and I think marketers would be a lot smarter to be investing in in social discovery and the influencers that your daughter is talking about at Sephora,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:12:25 - 1:12:34\" data-start=\"01:12:24.823\" data-end=\"01:12:34.323\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">then they would be to make a live streaming product in 2023 and I did not have chat gbt make any of my prediction so I thought just for fun.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:12:35 - 1:12:38\" data-start=\"01:12:34.588\" data-end=\"01:12:37.760\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Right if I were Scag Scott Galloway what would my,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:12:38 - 1:12:50\" data-start=\"01:12:37.911\" data-end=\"01:12:50.301\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">my big shocking prediction be and I thought because he likes to do contrarian things and so my foe bonus prescription some predictions,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:12:50 - 1:12:54\" data-start=\"01:12:50.427\" data-end=\"01:12:54.026\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">is that Jeff Bezos comes back to take over Amazon this year.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:12:55]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:12:55 - 1:13:05\" data-start=\"01:12:54.592\" data-end=\"01:13:04.644\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah that\u2019s he\u2019s really dropped off the radar I may not be tracking it but I haven\u2019t really heard from him for a while he was last seen on a boat in a bathing suit.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:13:03]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:13:03 - 1:13:17\" data-start=\"01:13:03.215\" data-end=\"01:13:17.071\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Midlife crisis and I feel like it\u2019s almost over I feel like the stock would get a big bonus if he came back he handed the reals rains 2nd jassy on a specific day in May which was the anniversary of when Amazon was founded,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:13:17 - 1:13:22\" data-start=\"01:13:17.138\" data-end=\"01:13:22.491\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and so I think it wouldn\u2019t be surprising to see him maybe not like.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:13:23 - 1:13:32\" data-start=\"01:13:22.858\" data-end=\"01:13:31.517\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Show Vandy Jesse out but maybe he comes back as CEO and Andy keeps the president title or something like that.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:13:32]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:13:32 - 1:13:45\" data-start=\"01:13:31.608\" data-end=\"01:13:45.218\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">This is what Bob Iger did it doesn\u2019t he kind of gave the reins to his dude left and then did nothing about talk bad about him and then the first sign of weakness came in and kicked him to the curb so that\u2019s you know it\u2019s good for the ego it could be part of this midlife crisis.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:13:45]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:13:45 - 1:13:48\" data-start=\"01:13:44.918\" data-end=\"01:13:48.078\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">No I do think that was inspired by Disney I will say.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:13:48 - 1:14:02\" data-start=\"01:13:48.421\" data-end=\"01:14:01.610\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Jeff and Andy seem way less acrimonious and more collaborative so I don\u2019t think it would have that same I picked you as my successor and now I\u2019m going to stab you in the back and take my job back from you kind of vibe.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:14:02 - 1:14:12\" data-start=\"01:14:02.188\" data-end=\"01:14:11.994\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">I did see an interview with Andy Jesse shortly after that Disney thing and the interviewer joked he said you seem like you\u2019re a lot safer than Bob Iger.<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:14:20 - 1:14:33\" data-start=\"01:14:19.692\" data-end=\"01:14:33.302\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">We have certainly lived up to our reputation as being long-winded we\u2019re a little bit over time but this is a super fun episode we\u2019ll put all the predictions in the notes so you can you can see them if you don\u2019t want to listen to the whole thing<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:14:33 - 1:14:41\" data-start=\"01:14:33.279\" data-end=\"01:14:40.862\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">and I\u2019ll put a note up front that if folks want to jump the skipper first 30 minutes of updates and banner and get right to the predictions that you can do that as well,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:14:41 - 1:14:55\" data-start=\"01:14:41.084\" data-end=\"01:14:55.277\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">so I want to thank everyone again for putting the time in and all the other great comments and feedback we got at the show but you know if you could do us one extra favor and write some of those great comments and feedback you gave to me live,<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:14:55 - 1:14:59\" data-start=\"01:14:55.464\" data-end=\"01:14:59.334\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">in a iTunes review we would certainly appreciate it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"1\">Scot:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:15:00]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:15:00 - 1:15:14\" data-start=\"01:14:59.929\" data-end=\"01:15:14.026\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">Yeah and thanks everybody we appreciate you staying tuned for our predictions would love to hear your predictions tweet them to us LinkedIn Facebook or for Jason you can be real at him and he\u2019ll watch someone else read that<\/span><br \/><span title=\"1:15:14 - 1:15:16\" data-start=\"01:15:13.780\" data-end=\"01:15:15.961\" data-spk=\"1\" data-label=\"Scot\">and until next time.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b data-spk=\"0\">Jason:<\/b><br \/><small>[1:15:16]<\/small>\u00a0<span title=\"1:15:16 - 1:15:18\" data-start=\"01:15:15.943\" data-end=\"01:15:18.455\" data-spk=\"0\" data-label=\"Jason\">Happy comercing.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><p><a href=\"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/online-workshops-list\/\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-496\" src=\"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/RETAIL-ONLINE-TRAINING-728-X-90.png\" alt=\"Retail Online Training\" width=\"729\" height=\"91\" srcset=\"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/RETAIL-ONLINE-TRAINING-728-X-90.png 729w, https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/05\/RETAIL-ONLINE-TRAINING-728-X-90-300x37.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 729px) 100vw, 729px\" \/><\/a><\/p><br \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A weekly podcast with the latest e-commerce news and events. Episode 301 is our annual predictions episode for 2023 and a recap of our 2022 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1121,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8434","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-podcasts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8434","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8434"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8434\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1121"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8434"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8434"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8434"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}