{"id":16482,"date":"2025-12-29T12:23:22","date_gmt":"2025-12-29T12:23:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/retail-industry-predictions-for-2026-part-1\/"},"modified":"2025-12-29T12:23:22","modified_gmt":"2025-12-29T12:23:22","slug":"retail-industry-predictions-for-2026-part-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dmsretail.com\/RetailNews\/retail-industry-predictions-for-2026-part-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Retail industry predictions for 2026 – Part 1"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"Retail<\/a><\/p>
\n<\/p>\n

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With consumer confidence subdued, concerns over rising costs and new technology redefining customer expectations, 2025 was a rollercoaster for all aspects of the retail sector.<\/p>\n

But will 2026 be any different?<\/p>\n

In the first of a two-part series, Retail Gazette hears from seven industry experts with predictions for the 12 months ahead.<\/p>\n

The importance of blended retail<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Carina Hummel, UK managing director for Optics at Specsavers, says one trend that will be key in 2026, is that \u201ccustomers expect a truly blended retail experience\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ve long believed that people should be able to engage with us in whatever way suits them best.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhether that\u2019s starting their journey online, seeking the expertise and friendly face that comes with an in-store environment, or moving seamlessly between the two,\u00a0and that principle will only grow in importance.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut a blended experience doesn\u2019t diminish the significance of physical retail. If anything, it reinforces it. Customers may start their journey online, but they still value the reassurance, expertise and human connection that only the high street can provide.<\/p>\n

\u201cRetailers with deep community roots \u2013 and who stay closely attuned to the people they serve _ will ultimately come out on top.\u201d<\/p>\n

Brand loyalty cannot be taken for granted<\/span><\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Jacqui Baker, head of retail at auditing and consultancy firm RSM UK, says while the November Budget \u201cdidn\u2019t deliver a killer blow to consumer confidence\u201d, it \u201cdidn\u2019t provide much of an incentive to get spending\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn fact, following the budget, nearly 60% of consumers said they plan to save more or continue saving at the same rate over the next three months, suggesting caution remains king.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith most tax rises backloaded to the end of the decade, it\u2019s likely consumers will be muddling through the continued cycle of uncertainty next year which doesn\u2019t bode well for the sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cHousehold saving rates remain extremely high, but with more interest rate cuts on the horizon and inflation coming down, this should help consumers feel like they have a bit more money in their pockets and hopefully prompt them to spend rather than save.\u201d<\/p>\n

She added: \u201cWith an abundance of product variety in the retail space, loyalty is no longer guaranteed, so brands are having to fight harder than before to win over consumers. When looking at Gen Z shoppers, only 28% consider themselves loyal to brands, with 33% preferring to mix familiar brands with new or trendy ones and 25% actively seeking out new brands.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cBudget loyalists tend to be younger and the most financially constrained; given their price sensitivity they tend to stick to trusted brands. Experimentation also tends to accelerate with online shopping. Retailers must focus on continually re-winning loyalty through relevance, authenticity and innovation. The use of artificial intelligence will be key here to flex their approach depending on the consumer and their needs.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The high street revival<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Martin Smethurst, CCO at retail communications firm VoCoVo, believes 2026 will \u201cmark the comeback of the high street as bustling, vibrant community hubs\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cDespite a backdrop of closures, regeneration is a work in progress and gaining momentum in towns up and down the country,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe Government\u2019s recent Pride in Place initiative, for example, allows local people to have a greater say in the future of their beloved high streets.<\/p>\n

\u201cOur high streets are vital to the UK\u2019s economic and social fabric, providing a space for people to meet, shop and connect with each other.\u201d<\/p>\n

He added:\u00a0\u201cBut, it\u2019s going to take a collective effort to breathe new life into our precious community centres, with government and council initiatives needing to drive regeneration from the top.<\/p>\n

\u201cThoughtful planning must combine with accessible parking and affordable rates to keep retail centres attractive next year.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"High\n<\/picture>\nSmethurst also notes that turning the tide on retail crime in 2026 will require \u201ca collective effort\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cGoing into 2026, turning the tide on retail crime will require a collective effort. The passing of the Crime and Policing Bill into law will result in more arrests and tougher action against retail criminals, with the assault of a shopworker becoming a standalone criminal offence.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis alone, however, is not enough to fully protect shopworkers, particularly from non-criminal acts such as verbal abuse.<\/p>\n

\u201cCharities and industry bodies, such as the Retail Trust, must continue to get behind and support retailers, with the startling reality that 77% of retail team members have faced intimidating behaviour in the last year.\u201d<\/p>\n

Opportunities for indies<\/h3>\n

\"\"Martin Swadling, customer director at logistics firm Co-op Wholesale, says the independent sector has a \u201creal opportunity\u201d to \u201clead the next phase of growth in grocery\u201d in 2026.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fundamentals are clear: value will remain the primary driver of choice, but value in its broadest sense and not simply the lowest price,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe expect strong, well-executed in-store promotions to be absolutely critical, giving shoppers clear reasons to visit and to spend more when they do.<\/p>\n

\u201cOwn label will continue to play a central role in this value equation. By 2026, the most successful independents will be those that have invested in own-label ranges that deliver both affordability and quality.<\/p>\n

\"Shopping\n<\/picture>\n\u201cWe anticipate a continued reduction in eating out, which places convenience stores in a strong position.<\/p>\n

\u201cIndependents are uniquely placed to win by offering credible dine-in and tonight\u2019s-tea solutions, supported by premium own-label ranges that allow shoppers to enjoy small luxuries, either through restaurant-quality meals at home or as a trade-up treat.<\/p>\n

\u201cShopping behaviour will continue to evolve as we\u2019re seeing fewer trips but larger baskets. Great in-store standards will be non-negotiable: visually appealing stores, outstanding fresh food offers, and clearly communicated promotions will be essential to converting footfall into basket spend.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hybrid models become the new normal<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Jack Tomson, chief growth officer at retail, fulfilment and refurbishment partner <\/span>Trojan Group, argues that 2026 is shaping up to be \u201ca year of major shifts\u201d for the retail sector.<\/p>\n

\u201cMore brands will move to a hybrid Amazon model, balancing Amazon 1P with Amazon 3P, while continuing to invest in their own direct-to-consumer channels,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis approach gives brands greater control over pricing\/margins and reduces risk when Amazon scales back 1P buying.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s fast becoming the smartest way to stay visible, profitable, and resilient on the platform.<\/p>\n

\u201cHow shoppers find products will change, too. With more people turning to AI-led, conversational searches, brands will start rewriting product pages, FAQs and wider content so they appear when someone asks a question rather than types in a short keyword.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"Online\n<\/picture>\nHe adds: \u201cSocial commerce isn\u2019t slowing down either. TikTok Shop\u2019s growth suggests it will grab an even bigger share of product discovery, driving more impulse-led buys and pulling attention away from traditional search.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd then there\u2019s retail media. With Amazon, Tesco, Sainsbury\u2019s and TikTok continuing to build out their digital ad networks, brands are starting to divert more trade spend towards these digital placements.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf that trajectory continues, retail media may well move ahead of traditional trade spend and become one of the main performance levers for brands.\u201d<\/p>\n

The further rise of retail media\u2026<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tom Ridges, CEO of consultancy Herdify, highlights the growing importance that retail media will have in 2026.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis year we have seen retail media really come into its own,\u201d he says.<\/p>\n

\u201cOff-site buying powered by retailer data has accelerated rapidly, giving brands the ability to reach people long before they reach the store.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe latest forecasts suggest retail media will overtake the combined investment in linear and streaming TV globally by 2026, a shift that would have been unthinkable a few years ago.<\/p>\n

\u201cBut growth alone isn\u2019t the real headline. What matters is trust. Retail media works because it\u2019s based on what people actually buy.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd when you pair that with an understanding of how behaviours spread through local communities, how a recommendation in one neighbourhood can ripple into another, the opportunity becomes far bigger than a product slot on a webpage.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"retail\n<\/picture>\nHe continues: \u201cRetailer data can help brands find the clusters where momentum is already building and fuel it with off-site media that is relevant and rooted in real-world demand.<\/p>\n

\u201cAs standards for measurement are being formalised, brands should expect proof of incrementality. That means clear definitions of what counts as on-site versus off-site, and evidence of true \u2018extra sales,\u2019 not just re-labelled last-click wins.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn 2026, the most successful retail media strategies will combine rich retailer data, rigorous measurement, and an understanding of how influence travels through communities.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u2026 as long as the content remains relevant<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Selen Ozkan, marketing platform Uber Advertising\u2019s head of CPG EMEA, agrees retail media is \u201centering a new phase in 2026\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cNo longer the shiny new toy, it has matured into a commercially dynamic channel, offering high-intent audiences and environments that closely mirror how people shop today,\u201d she says.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe biggest opportunities will come from engaging consumers in the micro-moments where choices are being made, not weeks or days beforehand, and aligning messaging, creative, and commerce to those moments.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Morrisons\n<\/picture>\nThe advertising platform exec notes: \u201cRetail media has an amazing opportunity to unlock more potential by embracing integrated budgets and unified measurement. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIncrementality, transparent outcomes, and closer integration of media, commerce, and brand-building strategies will be critical. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cIn this environment, the platforms and networks that provide signal-rich, contextually relevant opportunities will be best positioned to help brands drive immediate results and build lasting connections with consumers.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Click here to sign up to Retail Gazette\u2018s free daily email newsletter<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

\"Retail<\/a><\/p>
<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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