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2025 has been a year of sweeping change \u2014 both technologically thanks to AI, and economically as President Trump\u2019s tariffs reshape the landscape of global trade. Not surprisingly, all this change has also shifted consumers\u2019 shopping behaviors, and new research from consulting firm BCG showcases exactly how that\u2019s playing out this holiday season.<\/p>\n
The findings underscore the driven, deal-seeking behavior that consumers are bringing to this holiday season, something that has already been widely seen this year, as early as Amazon\u2019s July Prime Day event. But while holiday shopping has been creeping earlier into the year for some time now, what\u2019s becoming clear this <\/em>year is that consumers are so intent on finding the best deals and saving money that they are willing to wait to buy<\/strong> \u2014 in particular for major holiday sales events like Black Friday \u2014 and they are drawing on the impressive research and deductive powers of AI to help them find the right time and place. \u00a0<\/p>\n BCG\u2019s annual Black Friday Report, Consumers Are Rewriting the Rules of Year-End Sales Events<\/em>, found that both consumer awareness and shopping intent for year-end sales events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday are up: Consumer awareness of Black Friday is now at 96%<\/strong> among those surveyed (up 1 percentage point over 2024) and 84%<\/strong> for Cyber Monday (up 2 points), with around 79%<\/strong> of those aware of the sales saying they intend to shop them this year (up 4 points over 2024). Not only that, but 77% said they will delay some earlier purchases to take advantage of end-of-year discounts during these sales.<\/strong><\/p>\n In tandem with that, almost half of those surveyed (48%<\/strong>) say they\u2019ll use generative AI tools such as ChatGPT or Gemini to find deals, compare products and plan their purchases this year, and in the U.S. specifically that number sits at 51%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n \u201cFor retailers, addressing these developments requires engaging customers early and continuously, defending visibility within AI-driven shopping ecosystems, and ensuring clear and transparent communication while delivering promised discounts,\u201d said the study\u2019s authors in a blog post sharing the findings. \u201cYear-end sales events are critical battlegrounds for consumer attention, and the winners will be those who engage early, safeguard their visibility and deliver on every promise, turning seasonal traffic into enduring loyalty.\u201d<\/p>\n For its Black Friday Report, BCG surveyed 10,000<\/strong> consumers between the ages of 18 and 75 across 10<\/strong> countries in Europe, North America and Australia. Here\u2019s more of what the company discovered:<\/p>\n End-of-year sales events like Black Friday and Cyber Monday have become \u201cglobal spending rituals,\u201d as BCG described them, and these sale events take on a heightened importance amid the subdued consumer sentiment that this year has wrought. \u00a0<\/p>\n This strategic, deliberate shopping behavior was already evident back in July during the Prime Day sales period when consumers showed a heightened sensitivity to price alongside a willingness to take their time<\/strong> over the extended four-day event to ensure they were getting the best deal. <\/p>\n Following Prime Day, Vivek Pandya, Director at Adobe Digital Insights said he expected those same patterns to continue into holiday shopping: \u201cThe consumer still has a strong perception that they\u2019re going to get the absolute best deal on Black Friday<\/strong>,\u201d he said on the Retail Remix podcast. \u201cThat becomes even more important [this year] because you see the consumer prioritizing price over speed, efficiency, convenience. What is absolutely clear is that consumers will be very strategic and conscientious about where they can get the best absolute value.\u201d<\/p>\n While BCG found that the majority of consumers (60%<\/strong>) planned to begin holiday shopping by late October\/early November, more than one-quarter (28%<\/strong>) said they intended to lean into last-minute sales opportunities as they arise, a slight increase from 2024.<\/p>\n \u201cEconomic caution continues to influence global shopping habits,\u201d said Tiffany Yeh, Managing Director and Partner at BCG in an interview with Retail TouchPoints<\/em>. \u201cEven as inflation stabilizes, the impact of higher living costs and interest rates persists. As a result, shoppers treat year-end sales not as impulsive splurges but as strategic opportunities to save, manage budgets and stretch their spending power.<\/strong>\u201d<\/p>\n Interestingly, despite persistent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, shoppers this year are displaying slightly less <\/em>conservative behavior than they did in 2024.<\/strong> <\/p>\n While many continue to trade down \u2014 with 38% buying more at discounters, 35% choosing more affordable brands and 28% purchasing more private-label goods in the three months prior to the survey \u2014 these percentages are slightly lower than those found in the 2024 survey. And shoppers in many markets report smaller net spending reductions in the previous six months compared to the 2024 results, particularly for furniture, jewelry and clothing.<\/p>\n According to BCG, this and other indicators point to a nascent recovery in consumer confidence and willingness to spend.<\/strong> In fact, the survey found that the share of consumers who feel pressure on their personal finances has actually decreased, with fewer respondents reporting difficulties affording household expenses (41%) or needing to use savings for daily outlays (45%) \u2014 both 2 points lower than in 2024. This is notable since consumers clearly still have lingering concerns over the broader economic environment \u2014 81%<\/strong> of respondents also said they were concerned about recent price increases for essentials, 71%<\/strong> fear that tariffs and duties will raise prices, and nearly half say they have reduced non-essential spending and are monitoring prices more closely in recent months.<\/p>\n And, while consumers are highly price-focused this year, \u201cthey are also demonstrating a \u2018smart splurge\u2019 mindset,\u201d said Yeh. \u201c56% use year-end sales to stock up on essentials, yet 44% are also channeling some of their budgets toward higher-priced discretionary items, up two points from 2024. This suggests that shoppers are balancing practicality with self-reward<\/strong> \u2014 saving on necessities while indulging in small luxuries as justified treats. Flexible payment options, used by about 40% of consumers, make these indulgences easier to rationalize alongside value-driven purchases. Overall, shoppers are spending consciously while still seeking small moments of satisfaction<\/strong>.\u201d<\/p>\n When it comes to how to capture shoppers\u2019 attention throughout the season, a straightforward approach is clearly the way to go. The BCG survey found that \u201cvalue consistency\u201d far outweighs\u00a0innovative\u00a0deal offers. While shoppers remain price-sensitive, they also want simplicity, transparency and reliability, and as such are seeking out clarity and fairness over gimmicks<\/strong>.<\/p>\n An \u201cx% off everything\u201d remains the most popular deal type for about 60%<\/strong> of shoppers (up 1 point over 2024), far ahead of gamified or conditional offers, at about 6%<\/strong>. The main threshold for a good deal is similar to 2024 \u2014 a discount of around 30%<\/strong>. The second- and third-most-popular deal types include \u201csteep discounts\u201d (51% of shoppers) and \u201cfree\/reduced shipping costs\u201d (44%) \u2014 both 2 points lower than in 2024.<\/p>\n As a result, BCG recommends that retailers use transparent price histories and consistent discount logic across channels to reinforce trust this holiday season.<\/p>\n Helping out this year\u2019s strategic holiday shoppers are new Gen AI tools like ChatGPT and Google AI, with usage surging across countries and generations. In fact, 48%<\/strong> of consumers have already used or are planning to use Gen AI during year-end sales events, a 9-point increase over 2024 with the top use cases being product comparisons<\/strong> (46%), deal-hunting<\/strong> (44%) and product research<\/strong> (42%).<\/p>\n Usage also is expanding among older groups, with 42% of Gen X<\/strong> (up 8 points) and 31% of Boomers<\/strong> (up 7 points) having used AI tools to shop or say they\u2019re planning to. Still, momentum remains strongest among younger shoppers.<\/p>\n \u201cOptimizing product data and content for GenAI and answer engines will be essential for maintaining visibility where purchase decisions increasingly occur,\u201d said Yeh. \u201c[Additionally], strengthening owned channels \u2014 including loyalty programs, apps and personalized offers \u2014 can help retailers deliver differentiated experiences and maintain control of customer relationships.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n\n
Desire to \u2018Spend Smart\u2019 is Driving Sales Patterns This Year<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Consumer Confidence May be Recovering<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Shoppers Want Deals that are Simple and Transparent<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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AI is Helping Consumers Achieve Their Holiday Goals<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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