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At the Pang Dong Lai supermarket chain, based in China\u2019s north-central Henan Province, both customers and employees are treated like royalty. <\/p>\n
No deviation is allowed from the company\u2019s lofty standards of customer service, and the chain is equally famous for the way it puts its employees\u2019 well-being and happiness at the centre of its business model. Pang Dong Lai\u2019s founder and chair, Yu Donglai, says the company\u2019s philosophy is \u201cfreedom and love\u201d. <\/p>\n
He certainly practises what he preaches: Nine months ago, he introduced \u2018unhappy leave\u2019 for his employees \u2013 10 days a year when an employee can stay away from work if (s)he is unhappy. Then, to kick off 2025, Mr Yu laid down some new rules for his staff: Among other things, they should not stand in the way of a divorce request from their spouse in the event of an unhappy marriage; domestic violence wasn\u2019t permitted; and when borrowing money, the amount should not exceed one\u2019s monthly salary.<\/p>\n
You have to wonder whether Mr Yu might have gotten a bit carried away this time and crossed a line, and certainly his new set of rules has drawn some ire on social media. Nonetheless, his concern for what goes on in his employees\u2019 private lives has been a marvel of consistency for the 30 years of the company\u2019s existence, and it has won the company fame and admiration.<\/p>\n
China retail data: consistent consistency<\/h3>\n
Mr Yu\u2019s consistency has been lauded but, in some other areas, consistency should draw scepticism. Take China\u2019s retail data for example, whose consistency should be drawing fire from all directions. The official numbers for China\u2019s retail sales, reported just last week by the government\u2019s National Statistics Bureau (NSB), have year-on-year growth for 2024 coming in at 3.7 per cent.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Since February 2024, sales growth has never deviated from a narrow band around 3 per cent. Low enough to be plausible and high enough to be respectable. It has been dutifully re-reported without so much as an asterisk by the major secondary sources and the business media.<\/p>\n
The NSB stated that the country\u2019s retail sales of consumer goods rose by 3.7 per cent in December (4.2 per cent excluding automobiles). For the whole year of 2024, sales of goods rose by 3.5 per cent (3.8 per cent excluding autos), with online sales growing by a little more than twice that rate. Catering sales (+5.3 per cent) also increased by more than physical goods.<\/p>\n
If the numbers are to be believed, by category there have been a few stars: household appliances and audio-visual equipment (+12.3 per cent), sports and recreational goods (+11.1 per cent), telecommunication equipment (+9.9 per cent), and oil, grain and food (9.9 per cent). Each of the four categories finished the year very strongly. For just about every other category, sales growth has pretty much hit the wall.<\/p>\n
The faster rate of growth of catering sales is partly attributable to growth on the supply side: Food services tenants are accounting for a lion\u2019s share of leasing, the major brokers have reported. Cafes, restaurants and other eateries drive a lot of foot traffic and mall operators love them. <\/p>\n
What do the retailers say?<\/h3>\n
Walmart says the consumer is spending \u2013 at Walmart.<\/p>\n
Walmart recently opened its 50th Sam\u2019s Club in China, and CEO Doug McMillon recently told investors that, \u201cAll 50 clubs are performing well and we have more to come.\u201d Walmart operates more stores in China than any country outside North America (about 340) and the company\u2019s performance is a fairly good bellwether of how Chinese mid-market consumers are faring. <\/p>\n
Walmart reports it is faring very well. The most recently reported quarter was the one ending October 31, in which Walmart\u2019s year-on-year sales in China grew by 17.0 per cent, to US$4.9 billion. Same-store sales grew by 15.0 per cent. McMillon says half of the company\u2019s sales in China are now digital, which is about double the penetration rate for China as a whole, government numbers show. Walmart said 80 per cent of its deliveries are completed in less than an hour, plausible in view of the sheer number of distribution points it has there.<\/p>\n
Some caveats are in order: Although Sam\u2019s, like Walmart more broadly, targets China\u2019s middle-class consumer, some percentage of its sales is to businesses buying in large quantities, rather than households. And regarding those households that do purchase more at Sam\u2019s, it is a reflection of a highly promotional retail environment in which consumers are focused on value and necessities. Bulk purchasing at lower unit prices is an appealing way for shoppers to achieve that value.<\/p>\n
Global brands: Starbucks, Fast Retailing and Nike<\/h3>\n
Many global brands would not concur with Walmart that things in China are quite that hunky dory. Starbucks is one: its comps have been down well into the double digits at its approximately 7600 units. The company, under siege from local competitors at lower price points, recently appointed a new CEO and chairwoman to try to reverse the decline.<\/p>\n
Another American brand, Nike, is also in the wars, metaphorically speaking, in China and is struggling to get traction again under its new CEO, Elliott Hill. Heightened competition, a value-focused Chinese consumer, and some ill-advised wandering off from Nike\u2019s traditional strengths were blamed for the decline, which reached almost double digits in for its revenues in the quarter ending November 30.<\/p>\n
Fast Retailing, parent of Uniqlo, also had a tough end to the year in China. For its fiscal quarter ending November 30, both revenues and profit for the company in China were down, profits, sharply so. Interestingly though, the company blamed neither competition nor the economy, saying that its problems stemmed from a failure to merchandise appropriately for unexpectedly warm winter weather, and also a failure to tailor its offering to regional variations.<\/p>\n
Government numbers: The economy is thriving<\/h3>\n
The NSB stated that real gross domestic product GDP grew by 5.0 per cent in 2024. That\u2019s an extremely consistent outcome again, considering that the official figures had the economy growing by 5 per cent in the first half of the year, so 5 per cent in the first half, 5 per cent in the second half and 5 per cent for the year. <\/p>\n
Also, the unemployment rate in 2024 came in a shade above 5 per cent, same as 2023, and consumer prices edged up by just 0.2 per cent.<\/p>\n
Consistency and nothing but. (No snickering please.)<\/p>\n
The post Walmart, Starbucks, Nike: Making sense of China\u2019s latest\u00a0retail\u00a0sales numbers appeared first on Inside Retail Australia.<\/p>\n